San Diego St at Wyoming – Preview and Prediction
SAN DIEGO ST 10 WYOMING (58)
MEGALOCKS LINE – San Diego St -7.5 Sagarin ratings – San Diego St -9.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: San Diego St 34 Wyoming 24
Massey Ratings Projected Score: San Diego St 35 Wyoming 31
The Game
Well that escalated quickly. Wyoming looked to be in great shape to make it to the Mountain West Title game. And then the DEBACLE in the DESERT happened. A 3-OT loss to the wacky UNLV Rebels put the Cowboys in a tough spot. Lose to San Diego St this week – and they are going to need help to get to the big game – despite having a victory over Boise St. Meanwhile, as expected, the Aztecs are on cruise control on their way to the title game. They are undefeated in conference play and have outscored Mountain West opponents by a tune of 226-42. Wyoming, bring the big boy pants.
The Match-Up
San Diego St offense vs Wyoming defense
Nobody likes a dirty little underdog more than the staff at MEGALOCKS. Here is the problem. The Aztecs running game is comically good. RB Donnel Pumphrey is one of our fav players in all of college football. We wish we could see him play more often. DP is following up his monster 2015 season with another fantastic campaign (1779 yards, 14 TD rushing so far) and back-up R Penny has 784 yards of his own. San Diego St had over 400 yards rushing last week…..and guess who ALLOWED over 400 yards rushing to UNLV ? That’s right, kids. Wyoming. Granted, it was in 3-OT, but the Aztecs should be able to have a great game on the ground. They are #121 in passing yards but #26 (!) in passing efficiency. They do not MATRICULATE often – but when they do – it is effective.
Wyoming has a scrappy defense but are a bit light on talent. They are 2nd in the Mountain West in INT (SD St is #1) and 2nd in turnover margin (SD St is #1). Normally, we would think that Wyoming could capitalize on mistakes, but on paper, the Aztecs take very good care of the football. The Cowboys will have to come up with a way to get some stops.
Wyoming offense vs San Diego St defense
This match-up has potential. Wyoming has put up 38,35,42,30,52,66 (3OT) in their last 6 games. Yes, San Diego St is a huge rise in class, but the Cowboys can move the football. RB Brian Hill is an a beast and has over 1,400 yards rushing. QB Josh Allen has thrown for 21 TD vs 10 INT and has over 400 yards net rushing and 6 TD. WR Tanner Gentry should crack the 1,000 yard receiving barrier in this game (962). This may not be Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin, but this version of the triplets is pretty good. San Diego St has faced the weak and pathetic for most of the season and are in for a wake-up call if they think they can just sleepwalk through this one.
MEGA MOUNTAIN WEST MAGIC
San Diego St is a mind-boggling 15-0 the past two seasons in conference games….That is pretty impressive no matter what conference you happen to play in….They are also on a 12-2 ATS run in Mountain West play…..Wyoming is already set to make their first bowl appearance since the 2011 New Mexico Bowl (lost to Temple) but have set bigger sights.
Summary
Much like a bunch of games this week, there are really tough intangibles to deal with for BOTH teams. San Diego St has clinched a trip to the Mountain West Title game. Yes, they want to win of course, but that is something you always need to at least consider when playing a DD fav late in the season. Meanwhile, Wyoming is coming of a 3-OT loss. Ouch. Mentally and physically that is a tough deal to bounce back from right away. Wyoming faced a post-3-OT road game earlier this year at Nebraska and was right in the game until the Huskers went 28-0 in the 4th quarter. These are the gems you just do not get anywhere else.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: Wyoming TT over 24 or less for small potatoes.