Washington St at Colorado – Preview and Prediction
COLORADO 4.5 WASH ST (60.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Colorado -3.5 Sagarin ratings – Colorado -1.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Colorado 32.5 Wash St 28
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Colorado 31 Wash St 26
The Game
Colorado. Your mission should you choose to accept it. Beat Washington St and Utah in your last two games (both at home) and you go to the PAC 12 Title Game. This match-up sets up nicely for the Buffs for one reason – Washington St does not need this game. Their date with the Washington Huskies next week is an absolute MONSTER HUGE WINNER TAKE ALL EPIC SLUGFEST for the PAC 12 North crown no matter what happens in this game. Of course, nobody WANTS to lose, but when one team REALLY needs the game and other team has significantly less motivation, it has to make you take a step back before getting involved with your hard earned PAPER.
The Match-Up
Colorado offense vs Wash St defense
The Buffs are ranked #37 in the FBS in rushing and #39 in passing. They are very balanced and are led by crafty QB Sefo Liufau who has thrown 10 TD vs 3 INT (has missed some time due to injury). He has enough mobility to drive defenses a bit crazy. RB P Lindsay is well on his way to a 1,000 yard season (937) and they boast a talented group of wide receivers. They will not blow you away with their stats but they are very effective. Our only worry is the production of the last three games (359,304,388 yards). They were also outgained by Arizona last week.
The Cougars owe a ton of their success to the defense. This is not your daddy’s Washington St team that gives up tons of points. They are ranked #50th in the FBS on defense and are mid-pack in the PAC 12. Against the run, they are #1 in the PAC 12 in yards allowed per game and #6 in yards per carry defense. They have only given up 28 points in their last two games combined. Colorado will have to mix it up and probably throw more than they would like to move the ball on the Cougars.
Wash St offense vs Colorado defense
The Cougars have done a lot better job running the football this season but it is star QB Luke Falk that will lead them to the PAC 12 Title Game should they get there. Falk is deadly accurate and tough. He has thrown 33 TD vs 6 INT. 2nd leader receiver R Cracraft is out for the season and will be missed but the Cougars have a loaded group at WR.
This is going to be a fantastic match-up. Colorado is ranked #1 in the PAC 12 in yards per play defense and are #4 (!!) in pass efficiency defense. It seems to us that the Cougars are going to move the ball but not at the pace and with the consistent success that we are used to seeing. The Buffs have only allowed 9 TD passes all season (12 INT). Colorado is #3 in the PAC 12 in sacks per game and good pass rushing teams can get to Falk. The Cougars are going to earn what they get.
MEGA MORSELS
Both of these teams have been raking in the imaginary Twitter units for a while now…..Colorado has covered every game this season other than the 20-10 win over UCLA (-13) whilst the Cougars are 16-7 ATS L23 and 9-1 ATS L10 as an underdog. Something has to give, yo.
Summary
These are both fun teams to watch. Colorado is just a really well rounded team with a solid defense. Washington St has the deadly passing attack, but now also has a good defense and running game to go with it. We have to side with the team that needs to game more and just have a sneaky suspicion that this might be a look ahead spot for the Cougars who are going to be playing the biggest game of the Mike Leach era next week. The under might also work as both defenses are better than most people think.
Conclusion
Official play: None YET. Still contemplating.
Lean: Colorado at -5 or better. Under 60 or better.