Auburn at Alabama – Preview and Prediction
ALABAMA 17 AUBURN (47)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Alabama -18 Sagarin ratings – Alabama -18.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Alabama 32 Auburn 15
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Alabama 30 Auburn 7
The Game
Always one of our favorite games of the year in any sport. The Iron Bowl. ROLL TIDE has been an absolute dominant BEAST all season and have already clinched a spot in the SEC Title Game vs Florida. Auburn has had a fine campaign (8-3) and would love to make their season with a win over hated rival ROLL TIDE.
The Match-Up
Alabama offense vs Auburn defense
ROLL TIDE is a force. Even when they do not look great on offense, they still managed to cobble together 30+ points. In fact, they have done that in every game this season other than one (LSU). QB Jalen Hurts gives them a nice running dimension which is going to help going up against the Auburn defense. Damien Harris is going to get to the 1,000-yard mark sooner or later (850) and they have a fine assortment of weapons in the passing game.
Auburn has done really good job on defense, particularly since the offense has had its ups and downs in 2016. The defense has only allowed more than 20 points ONCE since the middle of September (Texas AM) and are going to make ROLL TIDE fight for whatever they get. ROLL TIDE does not have a significant advantage in any regard but they just wear you out. And if they get short fields – UH OH.
Auburn offense vs Alabama defense
MEGALOCKS AUBURN DEEP INSIDERS tell us that BREAKOUT RB K Pettway (1,106 yards) should be good to go this week but will not be at 100%. QB Sean White has also been injured and it looks as though Jeremy Johnson will get the start on Saturday. Regardless, somehow, someway, we are pretty certain that Gus Malzahn will throw something unexpected or unconventional out there. They do have the benefit of a solid defense so they can afford to be patient.
Without the threat of a legitimate passing game, ROLL TIDE can focus on stopping the run and nobody does that better than them. Overall, Alabama has given up 0,3,3 (!!) the last three games. Auburn has only managed to put up 30 points in their last two SEC games combined.
MEGA MORSELS
Auburn games are 12-5 to the under L17……The under is also 6-2 L8 when these two teams square off in Tuscaloosa.
Summary
A strange set of intangibles at play. This is a yuuuuuuge rivalry game BUT ROLL RIDE has bigger fish to fry in the near future starting with the SEC Championship game with Florida. Auburn may have the motivational edge (slight) BUT this is not a kind match-up for them. You need to be able to MATRICULATE in the passing game to beat Bama.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Alabama at -17 or better. Under 47 or better.