Minnesota at Wisconsin – Preview and Prediction
WISCONSIN 14.5 MINNESOTA (44)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Wisconsin -12.5 Sagarin ratings – Wisconsin -15.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Wisconsin 29.25 Minnesota 14.75
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Wisconsin 28 Minnesota 17
The Game
Win and they are in. Simple. The Badgers are just one win away from a trip to the Big 10 Title Game if they can handle the Gophers for the 13th straight time. Minnesota is having a really nice season sitting at 8-3 with close losses to Penn St, Iowa and Nebraska. Hey, another SNOT BUBBLER potentially on the horizon. Let’s go !
The Match-Up
Minnesota offense vs Wisconsin defense
Oh those wacky Gophers. So boring. Yet they are 4th in the Big 10 in scoring offense and can beat you to a pulp with the running game. QB Mitch Leidner is a tough runner and can beat you with his arm if you are not careful. Obviously, the Badgers make life miserable for anyone trying to run the football, but Minnesota brings in a couple of nice RB including 1,000-yard man R Smith and last season’s leading rusher S Brooks. The passing game is just annoying enough to be effective. Minnesota is also #7 in the FBS in turnover margin and do not make it a habit of giving the ball away. The Badger defense has been a brick wall all season but will be tested for 60 minutes with tough physical play. The Gophers have to find a way to get at least 14-17 points to win but that will not be easy.
Wisconsin offense vs Minnesota defense
The Wisconsin D has been excellent but the Gophers D has been very underrated all season. They are ranked #25 in total defense and #15 against the run. The Badgers’ run game has been improving but Minnesota has really tightened the screws. The best way to beat the Gophers is to MATRICULATE in the passing game, and while we feel that the Badgers will hit one or two big pass plays, it will be hard to consistently work the ball down the field with the passing game. The Gophers are tied for SECOND in the Big 10 in sacks/game and can create havoc, especially when they know that they opposing QB is not very mobile (starter or backup). They are also 3rd in the Big 10 in TFL/game. The Badgers can definitely impose their will over four quarters but will it be enough to cover the big number ?
MEGA MORSELS
The Badgers have won 12 straight in the series but the last three have all been decided by 13 points or less…..Minnesota has not played a killer schedule but can still say that they have not lost a game by more than a TD all season…….We were surprised to read that the over is 8-0 L8 meetings in Wisconsin…..and overall….the over is 14-2 in the last 16 meetings between these two rivals.
Summary
The Badgers have played a much tougher schedule. Now that we have that out of the way, this looks to us like a game matching very similar teams. The Badgers are just better. But are they more than 2 TDs better ? Take a look at games vs common opponents. Hard to tell which team is Minnesota and which team is Wisconsin.
The Badgers just want to win. 2-0 would be fine. The Gophers are gonna leave it all on the field. So many of their games have been close and we think this one is gonna be tight heading into the final quarter.
Conclusion
Official Play: Minnesota +14.5 (play down to +14 -120) (sent out Friday am 8:55)