NC State at N Carolina – Preview and Prediction
N CAROLINA 10.5 NC STATE (59.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – North Carolina -7.5 Sagarin ratings – North Carolina -10
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: North Carolina 35.5 NC State 24
Massey Ratings Projected Score: North Carolina 30 NC State 21
The Game
It is a bitter in-state rivalry. And it kicks off the Friday afternoon slate at HIGH NOON. UNC needs a win and a Virginia Tech loss to Virginia (um, probably not gonna happen) to make the ACC Title game. The Wolfpack amazingly need a win to become bowl eligible as they are currently sitting at 5-6 overall.
The Match-Up
North Carolina offense vs NC State defense
This is where it all has to happen. Ace QB M Trubisky vs a suspect Wolfpack secondary. The Wolfpack have been excellent against the run (#7 FBS, #2 yards per carry ACC) and the Tar Heels have been unable to establish a ground attack against good defenses. NC State qualifies in that category as they are ranked #23 in the FBS and have only given up 30+ in two games this season. UNC has really missed deep threat and true #1 STUD Mack Hollins at WR, and as a result, they have not been as explosive as needed in the passing game. If you take away their ability to run, the offense can absolutely be slowed down.
NC State offense vs North Carolina defense
QB Ryan Finley has done a good job this season, but there is still a sense of disappointment because the Wolfpack have been unable to close out a number of close games. The good news for NC State is that they have a BEAST in 1,000-yard RB M Dayes who should be able to pound at the SOFT UNDERBELLY of the Tar Heels. Their run defense has been shredded all season (#114 FBS) and even Duke ran for over 200 yards against them. The Tar Heels also have trouble generating PENETRATION (#12 ACC sacks, #12 TFL) so the Wolfpack should be able to run all of their offense without a problem. They have a variety of targets in the passing game but no consistent game breaker.
MEGA MORSELS
Depending on the source you rely upon….The underdog is either 13-5 or 15-3 L18 ATS…..HC Larry Fedora is 16-11 as a HF at UNC…..The Tar Heels are DEAD LAST (wut ?) in time of possession in the entire FBS.
Summary
NC State is a puzzle wrapped up inside an enigma. They almost (should have ?) beat Clemson AND Florida St and neither win would have been deemed “lucky”. They have the motivation. They have the better defense. They win rush for more yards. And they are catching 10+ points.
Last year UNC ran for 374 yards (!) against NC State. This year’s team is having a lot more trouble running the football, and it sure does not help having a pocket passer vs run/pass nightmare M Williams.
Both teams have played a lot of close games this season. This feels like another one.
Conclusion
Official play: NC State +10.5 (play down to +10 -120) (sent out 8:00pm Thursday)