Toledo at Western Michigan – Preview and Prediction
W MICHIGAN 9 TOLEDO (68)
MEGALOCKS LINE – W Michigan -7 Sagarin ratings – W Michigan -9.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: W Michigan 38.5 Toledo 29.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: W Michigan 35 Toledo 31
The Game
It’s the game we have all been waiting for. Well, at least the staff at MEGALOCKS HQ have been waiting for it. The two best MACtion teams on paper go head-to-head in a BATTLE FOR THE AGES to decide who wins the West division and moves on to the MAC Title game.
W Michigan is 11-0 and have been taking no prisoners pretty much all season. They have been dominant in MAC play (outscored opp 307-112) and own the #2 offense and #2 defense in the conference. Toledo is no slouch. They have the #1 offense in the MAC and are mid-pack in terms of total defense. Both teams feature excellent QBs. Let’s go !!
The Match-Up
Western Michigan offense vs Toledo defense
It really is amazing. QB Z Terrell has thrown 27 TD passes and only ONE (Uno) interception. WOW. They also have a 1,000 yard rusher in J Franklin and a sure-fire NFL WR in Corey Davis (back to back 1,000 yard campaigns). What is really amazing about the Broncos is that they have really done a great job doing whatever they need to do to win. If you look at their boxscores they can throw it all day and kill you – or run it all day and kill you. Or mix it up. They have a mind-boggling 55.8% 3rd down conversion rate (#1 FBS). Toledo is pretty good on 3rd downs, and overall, while not as impressive statistically as the Broncos, they have done the job this season. It is going to be next to impossible to stop the Broncos so the Rockets will have to force some FGs and force a couple of fumbles to have a shot in this game.
Toledo offense vs W Michigan defense
Whoa. Toledo has a pretty rock solid QB as well ! Logan Woodside has 40 TD passes (!) vs only 7 INT and has been fantastic all season long. The Rockets ALSO boast a 1,000 yard rusher in Kareem Hunt and a 1,000 yard receiver is Cody Thompson. Toledo has been less explosive than you might think but have also been very efficient on 3rd downs (#3 FBS) and have maintained excellent balance run vs pass. W Michigan has been really good on defense this season but this will be WITHOUT A DOUBT the best offense they have faced all year.
MEGA MORSELS
Last year the Broncos won AT Toledo and cost the Rockets a trip to the MAC Title Game…..Both teams are spitting HOT FIRE against the spread….The Broncos are 26-10 L36 ATS whilst the Rockets are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games…..The dog is 9-1 in the series….TRENDS GUY is gonna have a hard time justifying a clear cut play on this bad boy…..STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE GUY will note that Sagarin has them ranked pretty close….WM #120….Toledo #116.
Summary
This should be a great game. The Broncos have been a lot more ruthless this season but they will definitely have the pressure on them playing at home. Toledo just goes about their business and wins games.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Under 66 or better. Toledo +9 or better.