Troy at Texas St – Preview and Prediction
TROY 27 TEXAS ST (59)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Troy -30 Sagarin ratings – Troy -26
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Troy 43 Texas St 16
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Troy 42 Texas St 17
The Game
The Trojans were in total control to win the Sun Belt title but laid a big egg against rival Arkansas St last week (a 24798275938470 STAR MEGALOCKS Early Taster WINNER) at home. They turned the ball over 5 times and that is really not what you want to do. They can still grab a share of the Sun Belt Title, and one incredibly impossible scenario could have them still winning it outright, but realistically, they are not in a great spot. The good news is that they can still have an 11 (!!) win season which would be MASSIVE for the program and their recruiting. HC Neal Brown has done a fine job.
The Match-Up
Troy offense vs Texas St defense
Troy has the #1 scoring offense in the Sun Belt (35 points per game) and are facing the worst scoring defense in the Sun Belt (42 points per game). Texas St just finished giving up 47 to Idaho and 50 to New Mexico St. Troy should be able to do whatever it wants on offense.The Bobcats have the worst pass efficiency D in the conference (only 3 INT all season vs 24 TD) and are horrible against the run. The Trojans can do both. RB Jordan Chunn should have a fine day. And so should QB B Silvers. Texas St is last in the Sun Belt in sacks per game (0.8).
Texas St offense vs Troy defense
The Trojans’ run defense is rock solid. The Bobcats have the worst rushing attack in the FBS (#128 – 76 yards per game). Troy also has a really good pass defense (#3 pass eff D in Sun Belt – 16 INT) and Texas St QB Tyler Jones has thrown more INT than TD passes. Only one player on the Bobcats has more than 100 yards rushing. Nobody has more than 355 yards receiving. Oh, and Troy is #1 in the Sun Belt in sacks per game.
MEGA MORSELS
The Bobcats are 6-14 ATS L20 games and 3-9 L12 ATS in conference play….This should be a welcome change for the Trojans who just got finished playing a really tough Appalachian St team and a sudden JUGGERNAUT Red Wolves squad.
Summary
We do not play 20+ point favorites often, but when we do, we prefer to fade Texas St.
There is no reason why this game should not be complete carnage. But that is why they play the games. Troy could come out flat, but we really think they come out fired up and wanting to drill somebody.
Don’t go crazy. It’s just another game. And it is the Sun Belt.
Conclusion
Official Play: Troy -27 (play up to -28) (sent out Friday am 8:55)