Alabama vs Florida – Preview and Prediction
ALABAMA 24 FLORIDA (41)
MEGALOCKS LINE – ROLL TIDE -23 Sagarin ratings – ROLL TIDE -21.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: ROLL TIDE 32.5 Florida 8.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: ROLL TIDE 28 Florida 6
The Game
The SEC Championship Game features the undisputed best team in college football (right now) – The 12-0 Alabama Crimson Tide. ROLL TIDE did not give up a TD in November. Yup.
Meanwhile, while injuries are a factor that every team needs to deal with, the Florida Gators have dealt with a TRUCKLOAD of said injuries and deserve ton of credit for cobbling together an 8-3 record and winning the SEC East. Scrappy.
The Match-Up
ROLL TIDE offense vs Florida defense
By now, we pretty much all know the formula. Exquisite balance between the #15 rushing attack in the FBS and a sneaky-good passing game (#24 FBS – passing efficiency) which harbors a number of big-time weapons. Of course, the mobility of QB Jalen Hurts is what really takes this offense to the next level. They have only been held to less than 30 points ONCE all season (10-0 SNOT BUBBLER vs LSU) and Florida is going to have to find a way to keep Bama at least in the low 20s, probably lower, if they want to win the game. Lane Kiffin is prone to calling 89 bubble screens in a row, and QB Hurts can be forced into the odd mistake, so there is a speckle of hope. Florida just has to play a perfect game. That’s it.
Many teams play games with the “injury report”. The Gators version is very reliable in the sense that its not like there are 30 guys listed as questionable. They have a bunch of starters and back-ups out on defense. That is not the way you want to head into the ROLL TIDE game. They gave up 423 yards to LSU and 387 to Florida St the past two games and not sure how much they can have left in the tank. Not to mention the kind of athletes that can stand toe to toe with ROLL TIDE for 60 minutes. Hard not to see them getting worn down.
Florida offense vs ROLL TIDE defense
Alabama has the #1 overall defense and #1 rushing defense in the FBS. That is going to make it very difficult for Florida to get anything done on offense (#HOT-TAKE). The running game has some potential against mere mortals – we like the way that J Scarlett runs the ball – but it is going to be a tough task on Saturday. A Callaway is a legit #1 WR but they just do not get him the ball enough down the field. ROLL TIDE should be able to shade the coverage in his direction and really stonewall the Gator passing attack. QB Austin Appleby is going to have to make some big throws to keep the defense honest. Uh oh.
MEGA-MAZING TIDBITS
Last season these two teams hooked up for the same prize and ROLL TIDE came away with a 29-15 victory…..ROLL TIDE is 9-2-1 ATS vs Florida in their last 12 meetings……These two teams have combined to to 15-8 to the under this season……Florida and Alabama has met a record 9 times in the SEC Title Game.
Summary
As much as we love playing underdogs, it is hard to come up with a compelling case for the Gators given their rash of injuries. It’s too many points to give up for our tastes, and even the Gators’ team total is asking for trouble (under 9), as they can score on defense or special teams.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: This game feels like it is lined perfectly. Anyone taking the spread or total will still likely be sweating heading into the 4th quarter. We need a bit more time to think about the best play (of all the bad plays) on this game.