Kansas St at TCU – Preview and Prediction
TCU 4 KANSAS ST (52)
MEGALOCKS LINE – TCU -4 Sagarin ratings – TCU -4
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: TCU 28 Kansas St 24
Massey Ratings Projected Score: TCU 27 Kansas St 24
The Game
This is a really tough game on which to get a gauge. Both teams are headed to bowl games. It’s just a matter of which one. In both cases, it will not be a marquee game. Kansas St has done well to win 7 games without much of a passing game, while TCU has been on a roller coaster ride all season long.
The Match-Up
TCU offense vs Kansas St defense
As if this game could not get more difficult to handicap, starting QB Kenny Hill AND starting RB K Hicks are listed as questionable for this game. That is essentially their entire rushing attack since the 3rd leading rusher on the team has 225 yards. Now, assuming they both play, Kansas St is a rock against the run. They lead the Big 12 in most run defense categories including yards per game, yards per carry and rushing TDs allowed (10). Now their secondary can be torched by good passing teams and that is what TCU is going to have to do. Again, we are assuming that Hill and Hicks are good to go. Either way, they are going to have to do their serious bidnezz through the air. Kenny Hill enjoys making big plays running and passing as well as throwing to the other team (13 INT).
Kansas St offense vs TCU defense
The Wildcats move at a very measured pace and just grind out drive after drive with the running game. QB J Ertz leads the team in rushing (listed as probable on injury report) and is a very tough and crafty runner. The RBs have also improved their production as the season has gone along. The game plan is no secret. Run. Control the clock. Kansas St is in the top 25 in time of possession and do not make many mistakes.
TCU will not have to worry about a consistent threat from the passing attack. Their defense has started to play better and just need to tackle better and get some stops on 3rd down. TCU is #1 in the Big 12 in sacks per game but that will likely be neutralized this week given the Kansas St offensive game plan.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
These teams have split the two most recent games at TCU….2014 was a 41-20 TCU victory….2012 featured a 23-10 Kansas St win…..Kansas St is 23-11-1 ATS L35 as a road doggie. Woof.
Summary
Tough game to call. Kansas St is just too scrappy to fade. TCU is so up and down.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: TCU team total under for small potatoes.