Ohio vs Western Michigan – Preview and Prediction
W MICHIGAN 19 OHIO (58.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – W Michigan -18 Sagarin ratings – W Michigan -20
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: W Michigan 38.75 Ohio 19.75
Massey Ratings Projected Score: W Michigan 36 Ohio 17
The Game
It’s MACtion Championship time !
The Western Michigan Broncos have been excellent all season, and in particular, during conference play. MEGALOCKS MAC DEEP INSIDERS alerted us to the fact that the Broncos became the first team in MAC history to win all of their conference games by 14 or more points. WHOA. They have been incredibly efficient and seem incapable of having a letdown. W Michigan comes into this game at 12-0 and are assured of the most prestigious bowl invite in school history should they beat the Bobcats. Oh ya, not to mention winning the MAC Title is pretty cool too. They have not been to the MAC Title Game since the turn of the century (sounds cool when you say it like that).
Frank Solich has done another fine job. Yes, the MAC East had a bit of a down year, but Ohio bagged 8 wins during the regular season and have had only ONE losing season in the past 11 years (2008). The last time the Bobcats made the MAC Championship game was in 2011 when they lost a close one to Northern Illinois. Is it their time to shine ?
The Match-Up
W Michigan offense vs Ohio defense
It feels like a broken record. Every week we talk about how balanced and efficient AND explosive this team is on offense. Well, not much has changed. They just hung 55 on a really good Toledo team and have the #1 rushing attack in the MAC and the 2nd most efficient passing attack in the conference. QB Zach Terrell has an amazing 30-1 TD to INT ratio (!!) which is a huge reason why the Broncos are #1 in the FBS in turnover margin. They have a great two-headed monster at RB with over 2,000 yards and 20 TDs rushing (J Franklin, J Bogan) and one of the most prolific WRs in MAC history in Corey Davis who will definitely be playing on Sundays (1283 yards receiving).
Ohio has the #2 rated defense in the MAC (and #1 in yards per play allowed) but they are going up against a total JUGGERNAUT. They are going to need to find a way to force some turnovers (probably going to have to be fumbles) and somehow get to the QB. Ohio leads the MAC in sacks per game but W Michigan only gives up one sack per contest. Ohio has a shot to make the Broncos a bit one dimensional as their run defense is pretty solid (#5 FBS – 105 yards per game). In perfect weather at Ford Field, it seems to us that Terrell could have a yuuuggge day throwing the ball.
Ohio offense vs W Michigan defense
The Bobcats offense has been struggling the past few weeks and they need to find a way to keep the Broncos’ offense off the field. They only managed 20 points vs the Chips two weeks ago and could not even get a SINGLE TD last week at home vs Akron. The Broncos one potential weakness is the SOFT UNDERBELLY up the middle vs good running teams. Toledo gashed them for 227 yards last week. Ohio has a good but not great running game. If they stick to and and convert on 3rd downs, they could stay in this game longer than we think. It does not seem realistic to think that Ohio can get more than 24 so they are going to have to limit the Broncos possessions or force a bunch of turnovers. And we have already determined that the “turnover thing” is not very likely.
MEGA-MAZING TIDBITS
W Michigan WR Corey Davis became the first WR in FBS history to register career totals of 300 receptions, 5000 yards AND 30 TDs….Amaze the checkout staff at Home Depot with that gem….The Broncos have won their meetings the last two years by scores of 49-14 and 42-14…..W Michigan is a rock solid 27-10 ATS L37.
Summary
Crazy things happen in big games. Not to mention this is MACtion. The Broncos are playing too well on both sides of the ball and just do not make mistakes. Ohio will have to go into full UGLY mode and scratch and claw for everything they get. Feels like a mismatch. The only question is covering the spread. Or is it ?
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: We would take the Broncos at any number less than 20. We also think the Ohio TT under could be a good play. Both for small potatoes if you need action.