Temple at Navy – Preview and Prediction
NAVY 3 TEMPLE (62)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Navy -1.5 Sagarin ratings – Navy -2
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Navy 32.5 Temple 29.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Navy 31 Temple 28
The Game
Temple gets another shot at bagging an AAC Title as they take on Navy on Saturday afternoon in Annapolis. The Owls came up a bit short last season losing to a really good Houston team in the big game. This week they will be tested by a Navy offense that is running on all cylinders. Both teams have 9 wins. Let’s goooooo !
The Match-Up
Navy offense vs Temple defense
Any time a team scores 141 points over the span of two games you should take notice. No, it is not the greatest team in history with the best QB ever (Louisville), but rather, the Navy Midshipmen that are crushing and killing with reckless abandon. They approached 500 yards (!) rushing in both of their last two games but now face a really stern test vs Temple.
QB Will Worth has done such a remarkable job running the offense. 25 TD runs so far and 1,000+ on the ground. The Midshipmen are ALSO the 5th (!) most efficient passing team in the NCAA. Whoa. What really makes this team tick is the DEVASTATING combination of being #1 in 3rd down conversions and #1 in penalty yards per game. Navy pretty much NEVER gets behind the chains and will often go for it on 4th down. Can you say NIGHTMARE ???
Temple brings an excellent run defense to the table. Overall their D is ranked #3 in the FBS (!) and is a solid #24 vs the run. They have faced similar offenses in Army (game one – loss) and Tulane (recently – a 31-0 win) and should have a good game plan to slow down the triple option. Keep in mind, it was not the most difficult of competition, but Temple only gave up 13,0,0,10 in their final four games of the regular season.
Temple offense vs Navy defense
Temple has the ability to put some serious hurt on the Navy defense. The Owls are #5 in the FBS in time of possession and have the kind of running game that can keep the Navy offense off the field for long stretches. J Thomas and R Armstead have 25 TDs combined and over 800 yards rushing each. QB PJ Walker is inconsistent at times (12 INT) but can make you pay if you cheat up to stop the run. In fact, the biggest advantage we see in this game for Temple is the horrible Navy defense. Keep in mind, last year they only gave up 21.8 points per game and this year they have allowed 30.
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
Temple is 24-8 ATS L32 conference games and 37-18 ATS L55 away…..Navy conference games are 11-1 to the over L12…..Navy has the annual game with Army next week.
Summary
This is a real tough game to call. Navy is a handful for any defense. They are playing incredibly efficient football right now on offense – even by their high standards. Temple has a great defense but facing a phenomenal triple option attack is one of the toughest challenges in college football. The Owls are definitely capable of winning this game and will need to have long sustained drives ending in mostly TDs. Not a bunch of FGs. Navy’s pass defense should not put up much resistance when the Owls choose to MATRICULATE in the passing game.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Temple TT over any number less than 30.