Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky – Preview and Prediction
WKU 10 LA TECH (82)
MEGALOCKS LINE – WKU -11 Sagarin ratings – WKU -10.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: WKU 46 La Tech 36
Massey Ratings Projected Score: WKU 42 La Tech 35
The Game
The Hilltoppers go for BACK TO BACK Conference USA Titles as they face the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at home on Saturday. WKU is red hot and have won six games in a row. The Bulldogs had been playing good football reeling off 7 straight wins before the debacle vs a motivated S Miss team last weekend. For those keeping score at home, La Tech did manage to beat the Hilltoppers earlier this season in Ruston by a score of 55-52. This is a big time REVENGE COCKTAIL being served ICE COLD with HUGE STAKES on the line. Let’s roll !!!
The Match-Up
La Tech offense vs WKU defense
The Bulldogs’ offense is ranked #5 in the FBS hitting for 44 points per game. The problem they have is when the running game struggles (like last week) it puts too much pressure on QB Ryan Higgins and the passing game. La Tech boasts a near-1,000 yard RB (J Craft – 997) and TWO 1,000 yard WRs (T Taylor, C Henderson) and they will need to be at their best on the road this Saturday.
WKU is ranked #6 in the FBS in rushing defense (107 yards per game) and it feels like they have been getting better as the season has gone along. In their first meeting this season, they held La Tech to 107 yards rushing but QB Ryan Higgins went bananas throwing for 454 yards (!) with 5 TD and 0 INT. It is probably going to take that type of performance to win this game. Can he do it on the road ? WKU has been playing soft competition recently, but nonetheless, have given up 3,21,7,6 in their last four games.
WKU offense vs La Tech defense
Check out the point totals for WKU the last 8 games -50,52,44,59,52,49,45,60. The Bulldogs have been OK vs the run but teams have spent a lot of time shredding their secondary to pieces. QB Mike “Walter” White has completed 67% of his passes and thrown for 31 TDs vs 5 INT. He also has two excellent 1,000 yard receivers (T Taylor, N Norris) to rely upon and a great RB in A Wales (1167, 20 TD). It is hard to imagine a scenario where WKU does not put up a ton of points. Can LT keep up?
MEGA-MAZING MINUTIA
WKU HC Jeff Brohm is doing a fine job and has proven that he can win big games since he arrived….La Tech Skip Holtz has the Bulldogs on the right track but would love a signature win on Saturday….The Bulldogs have not won the C-USA Title game….but….they did lose a close one in 2014 against Marshall.
Summary
We do not want to overreact to one bad game. Last week La Tech faced a super motivated S Miss team and got rolled. Previous to that game they had been playing pretty well. The line is probably -10 instead of -7 simply due to that result.
Having said that, WKU is an impossible fade right now. They are firing on all cylinders and are going to be a handful on offense. The real advantage is their defense. We feel they can make a lot more stops and give the Bulldogs some problems. Yes, La Tech will score, but there are going to be mistakes if they cannot run the football.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: La Tech TT under any number 35 or better. You should be able to get a bit higher than that number right about now. Small potatoes.