Arkansas at TCU – Preview and Prediction
TCU 7.5 ARKANSAS (58.5)
Implied Projected Score: TCU 33 Arkansas 25.5
MEGALOCKS LINE – TCU 10
The Game
The Razorbacks enter this game off an unexpectedly difficult game with Louisiana Tech in which they won 21-20 after trailing going into the fourth quarter. Defense was optional in the TCU opener as they defeated South Dakota St 59-41.
The Match-Up
Arkansas offense vs TCU defense
The Hogs struggled a bit last week as they could not crack the 300-yard barrier on offense. Strange to see them only pick up 106 net rushing yards. QB Austin Allen had a decent game last week but did throw two interceptions. There should be big plays to be made in the passing game as TCU struggled on defense at home last week vs FCS foe South Dakota St. Arkansas should be able to have balance in this game. We may have overrated the TCU defense coming into the season but let’s see how they look this week.
TCU offense vs Arkansas defense
QB Kenny Hill was great in week 1 throwing for 439 yards and 2 TDs (also two picks). Hill also added 3 rushing scores. It was a good tune-up as they had 223 rushing yards to compliment the passing attack. The Arkansas defense allowed less than 300 yards offense last week but this is going to be a much tougher assignment. Arkansas did give up 50 points in two games late last season (one was OT) and may struggle with the potent Horned Frogs passing attack. Their best defense would be an offense that pounds the ball and plays keep away.
Tasty Tidbits
TCU has not lost a home game since 2013….They are also 14-3 ATS L17 at home….Arkansas has also been an ATS JUGGERNAUT going 18-8-1 L27 ATS including last week….It will not come as a surprise to many that TCU had 12 penalties for 125 yards last week….We still miss watching Brandon Allen at QB but hopefully Austin Allen will become another solid Hogs QB.
Summary
TCU is going to be a handful. As we noted on Sunday, this baby opened at -4 on Sunday at BOL (can confirm on Vegas Insider) and the Sunday Early Taster Club got down at numbers ranging between -6 and -7. Could not click fast enough to grab -4.
Arkansas has a real shot in this one. They had a fine 7-minute drive last week in the 4th quarter when they needed it most. If they can grind out first downs and slow the game down TCU will be in for a battle. If the Hogs try and outscore TCU we think they only have a slim shot at the upset, and frankly, would probably lose by double digits.
The over looks pretty good but it hard to judge TCU defense off of one game. It is also hard to know what game plan the Razorbacks might have on offense. All it takes is a couple long drives eating up halves of quarters and it will be hard to get to 60.
Conclusion
As you know by now, we listed TCU -6 as a play on Sunday. There were a couple of people that did not want it counted as an “official” play. No problem ! Therefore…….
Lean: TCU any number -8 or better. It is -7.5 most places now I would probably wait to see if you can get -7….but if it creeps to -8 grab it. Still need to think about the total.