California at San Diego St – Preview and Prediction
SAN DIEGO ST 7 CALIFORNIA (60)
Implied Projected Score: San Diego St 33.5 California 26.5
MEGALOCKS LINE – San Diego St 8
The Game
California is finally back and ready to roll after their trip to Australia. They jump right into a tough one as they face the Aztecs in San Diego. Don’t look now, but your San Diego St Aztecs are now on an 11-game winning streak dating back to last season.
The Match-Up
San Diego St offense vs California defense
Uh oh. The Aztecs have a QB. We like the potential of Christian Chapman and he started out well against FCS opponent New Hampshire with 283 yards passing and 2 TDs. Star RB Donnel Pumphrey had close to 100 yards rushing. San Diego St is going to be balanced and should be able to get into the 30s without a problem.
Last time we saw the Golden Bears’ defense is was being ripped apart by the Hawaii (?) passing game and running game. It is early in the season, but Cal looks to be in for a long season on the defensive side of the football. They gave up 31 points per game last season and it is probably going to be closer to 35 in 2016. Our big issue here is that San Diego St now has a passing attack to go with the potentially devastating ground game. Cal will have to force some turnovers to have a shot.
California offense vs San Diego St defense
Cal is going to have to try and outscore people this year. Sound familiar ? QB Davis Webb looked sharp in their first game and should put up big numbers in this system. The Aztecs pitched a shutout in week one BUT this will be by FAR the best offense they face in their 12 game regular season schedule. It is really hard to say how they will handle it. They will get stops, but when you are asking to cover a TD or more, it introduces a lot more uncertainty into the equation. We think Cal can get well into the 20s.
Tasty Tidbits
At the risk of sounding ridiculous….this is a HUGE game for San Diego St because their schedule is almost comically easy on paper and they need to win this one (IMO) to have a good shot at making the Group of 5 bowl spot….The home team is 7-0 SU in the series…..California has a matchup with Texas next.
Summary
We would love to see this San Diego St team have a JUGGERNAUT-type season. It all starts here. The only play in this one feels like taking the favorite. Their defense is definitely going to make more stops. Can they cover -7 ? Feels like the back door may be open too wide for our tastes.
Conclusion
No official play.
Lean: San Diego St at any number -7 or better if you need something going on this one.