NORTH CAROLINA 9 ILLINOIS (58)
Implied Projected Score: North Carolina 33.5 Illinois 24.5
MEGALOCKS LINE – North Carolina 10
The Game
The Tar Heels travel to meet Illinois this Saturday after playing a real emotional game against the Georgia Bulldogs. Illinois won their first game of the Lovie Smith era 52-3 against FCS opponent Murray St. UNC won last season’s match-up 48-14.
The Match-Up
North Carolina offense vs Illinois defense
After watching last week’s game, we see no reason to believe that the Tar Heels will not be explosive once again in 2016. The running game looked fine when they actually utilized it last week. QB Mitch Trubisky looked decent against a tough opponent, but overall, they were unable to hit any big plays in the passing game.
The Illini defense was pretty good last season allowing only 23 points per game. They did not face a lot of potent offenses. UNC lit them up for 48. One thing we liked in the stats sheet from week one was the fact that they had 6 sacks (19 total all of 2015).
Illinois offense vs North Carolina defense
Illinois struggled to score points last year (22.7 per game) and they were last in the Big 10 in rushing yards per game. They are going to be better this season, but it is hard to gauge exactly how much better until we see them play 3-4 games. UNC run defense is still a work in progress but this is a drop in class. The best strategy for Illinois might be to throw at the dude on UNC who gets pass interference called on him every play even when he isn’t on the field.
Tasty Tidbits
UNC has James Madison on deck so hopefully they can have one more big effort in the tank….Always a risk of a letdown after a hard fought emotional game……UNC was penalized 25 times for 1,900 yards last week….wait….we need to check on that.
Summary
The number looks pretty solid right now at -9. The total might be a bit high. Hard to say given how fast UNC plays on offense.
Conclusion
As you know by now, we recommended UNC -6 as a play on Sunday. There were a couple of people that did not want it counted as an “official” play. No problem ! Therefore…….
Lean: No leanage unless line drops to -7. That was our high-water mark before and it still is right now. I know many people got in at -6.5 or -7. Just hold that position. Otherwise do nothing unless it comes back down again (unlikely).