Houston at Cincinnati – Preview and Prediction
HOUSTON 7 CINCINNATI (63)
Implied Projected Score: Houston 35 Cincinnati 28
MEGALOCKS LINE – Houston 6
The Game
This is a great match-up with two of the favorites in the AAC going head-to-head on a Thursday night. No, it is not #MACtion, but we will take it ! Houston’s big win over Oklahoma is still fresh in everyone’s minds, and on the other side, the Bearcats are off to a quiet 2-0 start but have not been tested as of yet. Buckle up.
The Match-Up
Houston offense vs Cincinnati defense
The Cougars have a very balanced offense with a great dual threat QB leading the charge. Statistically, you cannot get a read on this team yet because they have played Oklahoma (really good) and Lamar (FCS team). What we do know is that Houston should be able to run and MATRICULATE in the passing game. In last season’s match-up, QB Greg Ward had 119 yards rushing and 161 yards passing. As team the Cougars ran for 266 yards. Oh, and last week, Cincinnati gave up a billion yards passing to Purdue but did come up with 5 interceptions. We doubt Greg Ward is going to be that charitable. We also like that Houston did not play Ward or RB Duke Catalon last week and they will be fresh and ready to roll. We see Houston getting into the 30s.
Cincinnati offense vs Houston defense
The Bearcats have been rolling with QB Hayden Moore at QB and he has looked very good so far. “The Volatile One” Gunner Kiel threw for over 500 yards in last season’s match-up. Moore is more reliable and still dangerous. An overlooked facet of the Cincinnati offense is their excellent one-two punch at RB (Mike Boone, Tion Green) and solid offensive line. The Houston front 7 is really good so this should be a fun match-up to watch. Cincinnati has enough balance to keep the Houston offense honest, but to BE honest, Moore is going to have to have an exceptional game to keep this game close.
MEGA morsels
Houston is an unconscious 21-4-1 ATS (!!) in their last 26 road games…..The dog is 6-2-1 L9 ATS in the series so pick the trend you like….Speaking of trends – amaze your annoying co-workers with this factoid….Cincy has won 29 straight non-conference home games…..like for real…..HC Tubs is 16-3 SU at home….not saying just saying…..at least CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY has a leg to stand on if he backs the Bearcats….Houston is ranked 6th in the FBS in time of possession…..Cincy is waaaaaaay down the list…..Cincy is #2 in the FBS in turnovers forced through two games (8).
Summary
Just so we all know. The line is absolutely shaded a bit in Houston’s favor. Now, they can still win by 28, but taking Houston is getting the worst of the “value”. Having said that, who really cares about “value” if you cash your ticket ?
We do lean towards the Cougars because they come into this game really fresh and have no negative situational angles at play. Cincinnati will have to go +2 or better in the turnover department to win this game. Probably even to cover.
Conclusion
No official play.
Lean: Houston at any number -7 or better. Cannot ignore the success of the Bearcats on their home field and they have been forcing a lot of turnovers. <grabs popcorn>