Arkansas St at Utah St – Preview and Prediction
UTAH ST 9 ARKANSAS ST (58.5)
Implied Projected Score: Utah St 33.75 Arkansas St 24.75
MEGALOCKS LINE – Utah St 6
The Game
Neither team can be coming into this game with too much confidence. Arkansas St has faced two good opponents and one shredded them through the air (Toledo) while the other one tore through them with the running game (Auburn). Utah St started out in fine fashion with a win over FCS opponent Weber St and then got plastered on the road 45-7 by USC.
The Match-Up
Utah St offense vs Arkansas St defense
QB Kent Myers appears to be struggling just a bit and does not have the downfield weapons that he needs. Myers has only thrown one TD pass so far this season and is only averaging 5.6 yards per attempt. Nobody on the roster has more than 65 yards receiving so far. The running game should work well. They would definitely miss #1 RB Devante Mays should he be unable to go on Friday night. MEGALOCKS UTAH ST INSIDERS tell us that it will be a game-time decision. We guess that he will sit this one out and rest up for conference play which starts next week against Air Force.
We still have faith in the Arkansas St defense when they match-up with a less-than-overwhelming offensive opponent. Their stats are going to look bad for a while but the Toledo QB is excellent and that Auburn running game looks to be a JUGGERNAUT as well. The weapons on Utah St are much more within their area code.
Arkansas St offense vs Utah St defense
The Red Wolves have looked a bit out of sorts so far. The Toledo defense is better than originally advertised and we saw how Auburn’s D made Clemson look like mere mortals. They still lack the weapons in the passing game to score a ton of points and QB Chad Voytik has not thrown a TD pass yet this season.
Utah St has put together 5 straight seasons allowing 366 yards or less on defense. They play very solid fundamental football and think they will match-up pretty well with the Red Wolves.
MEGA morsels
These two teams met in 2014 with Arkansas St winning 21-14 at home in OT….We remember that game fondly because we were at the Michigan/Utah lightning storm debacle and watched the cell phone updates in horror as the over died a slow death…..Back to this game…..Trends definitely back the over in this one….Ark St 20-6 L26 to the over….Utah St 10-3 L13 to the over…..However, this match-up does not feel like a 31-28 type game……The visitor in the series is 0-6 SU.
Summary
It feels like a lot to ask these teams to essentially get into the 60s when they have 1 TD pass between them, and further, one defense is pretty good while the other is better than they have shown so far. Utah St will get their rushing yards. If Mays does not go it will help the under because he is their big play offensive threat.
Conclusion
Official play: Arkansas St / Utah St under 58.5 -107 (no lower than 57.5)
Lean: Arkansas St at any number +8.5 or better. It is +9/+9.5 right now. Wait to see if you can get +10 if you want to try that one. If it starts dropping take the +8.5. Just a lean if you need to back a side in this one.