Oregon at Nebraska – Preview and Prediction
NEBRASKA 3.5 OREGON (73.5)
Implied Projected Score: Nebraska 38.5 Oregon 35
MEGALOCKS LINE – Nebraska 3
The Game
In what feels like the 1,300th great game so far this season, the Oregon Ducks travel to Lincoln, Nebraska to take on the Cornhuskers. Nebraska is off to a hot 2-0 start with a couple of blowout wins against Fresno St and Wyoming. Oregon has won their first two games over easy competition by a combined score of 97-54. It is time for each team to get tested. We can’t wait. <grabs popcorn>
The Match-Up
Nebraska offense vs Oregon defense
The most impressive thing about the Nebraska offense so far is the balance. In week one they destroyed Fresno St on the ground with almost 300 yards rushing. Last week they had over 400 yards passing. This makes us feel really good about their long-term prospects this season, but most importantly for now, their chances of moving the ball up and down the field on Oregon.
We have very little confidence in the Oregon defense right now. They did not look great in the two tune-up games to start the year and now have to face a really good offense in a really tough place to play. We have a hard time seeing Oregon slowing down the Huskers.
Oregon offense vs Nebraska defense
New QB Dakota Prukop has looked good so far averaging almost 10 yards per attempt without throwing an INT. RB Royce Freeman is averaging over 9 (!!) yards per carry and has 294 yards on the ground over the first two games. This is going to be a tough adjustment for the Huskers as this is not quite the same as playing Fresno St or Wyoming. Or really any Big 10 opponent. We still have questions about their DL but so far they have proven us wrong. The odds are that Nebraska comes up with more stops than the Ducks. The great unknown to us is HOW good is this Oregon QB ? There is just no way of knowing yet. If he can MATRICULATE in the passing game and hit a lot of big plays then Oregon will be in this to the final whistle.
MEGA morsels
Oregon is an amazing 22-5 ATS in their last 27 road games !…..Husker QB 18th year senior Tommy Armstrong is averaging 11 yards (!) per attempt…..Nebraska is +7 in turnover margin already and getting some more of that sweet action will certainly help the cause…..Both teams have taken a lot of penalties so far…..For those that want to do a deeper dive on this game you can try and sort out the gigantic list of Oregon players that are “questionable” due to “injury”…..Feels like a Bill Belichick snow-job.
Summary
We have the game lined pretty much where it stands now. We have zero trust in the Ducks’ defense and lean to the Huskers simply due to that factor.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: Nebraska at any number -3 or better. See mostly -3.5 right now.