USC at Stanford – Preview and Prediction
STANFORD 9 USC (53)
Implied Projected Score: Stanford 31 USC 22
MEGALOCKS LINE – Stanford 7
The Game
If it feels like these two teams have played a lot recently, you are correct ! Stanford beat USC twice last season including in the PAC 12 Title Game. This season the Cardinal have only played one game (win over Kansas St) while the Trojans are 1-1 after an Alabama beatdown and a nice home win over Utah St.
The Match-Up
Stanford offense vs USC defense
QB Ryan Burns was efficient in the Kansas St game, but overall, the offense had trouble doing anything exciting. They could only muster 272 yards offense and Heisman hopeful Christian McCaffrey was held in check for the most part (126 yards rushing, 7 receptions). It is likely that the Cardinal will come out with more variety as they enjoyed two weeks to prepare for this rivalry game.
It is hard to get a handle on the USC defense. You always have to throw out a game vs Alabama. They did a good job vs Utah St and the run defense was particularly strong. MEGALOCKS USC INSIDERS have noted that the DL could be thin on depth this week. We need to do some more digging. On paper, the Trojans should be pretty good defending the pass in this one if they can show the Cardinal that the running game can be slowed down. Otherwise, they may get smoked with play action passes. The match-up seems pretty good for Stanford in the sense that they will want to pound the football and USC may not be up for that type of game.
USC offense vs Stanford defense
Once again, the Alabama game makes looking at offensive stats a tough chore right now. What we do know is that QB Max Browne is only averaging 4.8 yards per pass attempt, and overall, the USC offense is averaging barely over 4 yards per play. The Stanford D is somewhere between the quality of Alabama and Utah St so we do not see the Trojans going nuts in this game. One cannot deny, however, that the Trojans have a lot of skilled offensive weapons that are bound to make things happen at some point in the contest.
MEGA morsels
Stanford is an amazing 39-18 ATS in their past 57 home games (68%)…..Something has to give because the road team is 9-3 L12 ATS and the underdog is 8-2 L10 ATS…..<gets headache>…..For the record….The two games last season were 41-31 and 41-22….hard to see these teams getting close to those totals on Saturday night.
Summary
We definitely like the fact that Stanford is the fresher team off a bye with two weeks to prepare…USC is reeling after two physical contests and have not established their identity yet. The spread is just a touch higher than we would like to see to pounce on Stanford. Sadly, we missed the much lower number earlier in the week.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: Stanford if the line goes back down to -7 (extremely unlikely). Lean to the under any number 52 or better.