Arkansas vs Texas A&M – Preview and Prediction
TEXAS A&M 6 ARKANSAS (49)
Implied Projected Score: Texas A&M 27.5 Arkansas 21.5
MEGALOCKS LINE – Texas A&M -4
The Game
Is it possible to get a 3rd straight OT classic ? The Aggies and Razorbacks face off in Arlington Saturday night with undefeated records on the line.
The Match-Up
Texas A&M offense vs Arkansas defense
The Aggies have been really good on offense so far this season and the only knock on them might be that they have been a tad inconsistent. Trevor Knight looks to be a good fit for this offense but he has only completed 53% of his passes so far in 2016. The running game has been a pleasant surprise and that may be the difference in this game. True balance. Last year the Hogs outrushed A&M 232-65 and the Aggies will be much better off if they can maintain better offense balance this year.
The Arkansas defense has been really good so far and is ranked #34 in the FBS despite playing three good offenses and one 2-OT game at TCU. Arkansas is ranked T4 in the SEC in sacks per game but Texas A&M has done a nice job of protecting Trevor Knight. Further, the Hogs have only allowed one TD pass so far this season.
Arkansas offense vs Texas A&M defense
As noted earlier, Arkansas had a huge rushing advantage in last season’s match-up and will need to have similar success in the game on Saturday night. The Razorbacks have had balance on offense with efficient QB play from Austin Allen and solid running from RB Rawleigh Williams (354 yards in three games). The A&M defense has been top notch all around this season and it will be a stern test for Arkansas to move the football. The Aggies are 2nd in the SEC in sacks per game and 11th in the FBS in passing efficiency defense. They are also only allowing 3.2 yards per carry.
MEGA Minutia
As noted earlier….the last two years have featured 7-pt A&M OT wins….we expect nothing less than a close game on Saturday….Arkansas is 20-8 L28 ATS…..Faders beware.
Summary
It certainly feels hard to lay close to a TD in this game. We are going to lurk in the shadows and see if we can’t weasel +7 out of this bad boy. Total looks very sharp at 49. Both defenses are better than people think.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: Hogs at +6 or better for small potatoes. Probably makes the official list if we can get the line moving to +7.