Boise St at Oregon St – Preview and Prediction
BOISE ST 13.5 OREGON ST (59.5)
Implied Projected Score: Boise St 13.5 Oregon St (59.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Boise St 11
The Game
Boise St looks to keep the train rolling before conference season as they take their 2-0 record into Corvallis to face the Oregon St Beavers on Saturday afternoon. Boise has had a bye week to digest their near miss against Washington St while the Beavers are coming off a win over FCS rival Idaho St last weekend.
The Match-Up
Boise St offense vs Oregon St defense
The Oregon St defense looks like it might be much improved this season but they are going to get a stern test from Boise St. The Broncos are off to a decent start but QB Brett Rypien needs to take better care of the football especially in a PAC 12 road environment. Rypien threw 3 INT against Washington St and he has to be a lot better than the QB that played in that game. He is also only completing 60% of his passes. The running game also needs to improve and the hope is that the bye week helped them get things tuned up.
The Beavers allowed 37 points per game (!) last season but have started the season in fine fashion, particularly in week one, where they held the Gophers to under 300 Y total offense. It is too early to cast judgement on this group yet but there is definitely promise.
Oregon St offense vs Boise St defense
QB Darell Garretson gives the balance that they need on offense. Other teams must at least respect the fact that the Beavers may actually throw a pass longer than 5 yards down the field. The Beavers have a number of interesting and versatile weapons including RB Ryan Nall who leads the team in rushing and also has 10 receptions in two games. Garretson is only averaging 5.7 yards per attempt so our worry is that they may not be able to take advantage of a potentially weak Boise St secondary. Then again, Boise has played Washington St who could make any secondary look bad.
The big mismatch in this game might be the danger of ONGOING PENETRATION that the Broncos will be bringing on defense. Boise is ranked highly in sacks per game and TFL / game (yes, it is early) but it is important to note that Oregon St is ranked #127 in TFL allowed per game. it seems to us there will be a lot of short stuff and unsuccessful running attempts.
MEGA Minutia
It spans quite a long time….but Boise is 0-3 SU at Oregon St….Those were the good old days when the Beavers were NASTY at home…..Both teams start conference play next week and the Broncos have one of the only tough games on the docket next week when they face Utah St.
Summary
We think the Beavers might be a decent play if the spread gets over 14 but we truly do not know enough about them just yet. Boise ? Sort of the same thing. Are they the really good Boise St – or – just the good Boise St that lost to New Mexico and Air Force at home last season ?? Puzzler.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: Slightest of leans to the Beavers if the line gets over 14 on game day. Total seems a bit rich as well but our confidence level is not high.