FLORIDA ST 5 S FLORIDA (61)
Implied Projected Score: Florida St 33 S Florida 28
MEGALOCKS LINE – Florida St -6
The Game
This should be interesting. How do you come back from one of the most brutal losses in school history ? The Seminoles got 60 minutes of behind-the-woodshed treatment last week losing to ACC Atlantic Division rival Louisville by a score of 63-20. Here is the thing. They are still a really good team and can still make some noise before this season is over. The Bulls have had a pretty easy schedule so far and are off to a 3-0 start.
The Match-Up
Florida St offense vs S Florida defense
The Seminoles have not got the ground game going yet this season and Dalvin Cook is only averaging 4.6 yards per carry as opposed to the 7.4 per pop he averaged in 2015. Granted, they have played a couple of pretty good defenses, but they need more explosive plays from Cook. Freshman QB Francois looks really good and has a lot of weapons at his disposal. South Florida was lit up for over 500 yards by Syracuse, and overall, we have been a bit disappointed by their stop unit (ranked #70 FBS). Florida St should have no problem scoring 28+ and are likely to get into the 30s.
S Florida offense vs Florida St defense
We get to see one of our favorite players QB Quinton Flowers go up against a Seminole defense that is reeling after last week. South Florida presents similar problems as Louisville but taken down a couple (dozen ?) notches. Florida St S Derwin James is going to be missed in this game and we see the Bulls’ offense rolling along in this game and also scoring a bunch of points.
MEGA Minutia
Both teams have conference games to look ahead to….The Seminoles are also in that ugly sandwich situation coming off the game vs the Cards…..So Flo is 6-7 ATS as a home dog under HC Taggart but were 3-0 last season….Don’t forget that Syracuse outgained the Bulls 549-454 but were (-3) in turnovers and that killed them…..In that same game the Orange were 12-24 on 3rd down conversions.
Summary
We had this spot circled on our schedules but did not count on Florida St getting blown off the map last week. Like it or not, a lot of value has been sucked out of the South Florida underdog play. Now, that is not to say they cannot win, but we really need more than a TD to consider playing the Bulls.
There is too much uncertainty here. Do the Seminoles come out and play a great game after last week’s debacle, or do they fold up like $4 lawn chairs ? They are very well coached and have a lot of talent so expect a good performance. I guess the real question is – Are the Seminoles better than the Bulls even on a good day ?
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: Lean to over any number 61 or better.