LSU at Auburn – Preview and Prediction
LSU 3.5 AUBURN (46.5)
Implied Projected Score: LSU 25 Auburn 21.5
MEGALOCKS LINE – LSU 3
The Game
It’s the “Hot Seat” Bowl as both Gus Malzahn and Les Miles are in need of a win in this game to keep the critics quiet for at least one more week. Not to mention the SEC West implications. Auburn comes in at 1-2 with an SEC loss (Texas A&M) already on their resume while LSU is trying to rally behind new QB Danny Etling after an opening week loss to the Badgers.
The Match-Up
LSU offense vs Auburn defense
Last season the Tigers mauled the Auburn defense for 411 rushing yards at well over 8 yards per carry. The running game has not been as reliable this season but RB Leonard Fournette looked pretty good last week rushing for 147 yards and 2 TDs. Auburn just finished giving up 231 yards rushing to Texas A&M. We do not see a 400-yard day (#HotTake) on the ground but can still see LSU pounding away for first downs. Etling seems to be an upgrade over Brandon Harris (#HotterTake) and that balance may create more problems for Auburn.
The Tigers are going to have to find a way to get off the field on 3rd down. They are ranked #22 in 3rd down defense and have a shot in this game if they can win the time of possession battle. LSU has been poor in that regard.
Auburn offense vs LSU defense
For all criticism of the Auburn offense, when you consider their options at QB, they have still managed to do a decent job in the running game. Now, a ton of that good work was done against Arkansas St (462 yards rushing) but the fact that they have two RBs with over 250 yards and a running QB who is like Carl Lewis but with better straight-ahead speed, you have to figure that Auburn has a shot to cobble together some first downs.
Sean White is a fairly mediocre passer but has still completed 63% of his passes with only 1 INT. It is going to be tough sledding against the LSU defense but it does not appear they will need to score too many points to win this game. The primary concern for Auburn has the be the PENETRATION of the LSU defense. Auburn in #102 in sacks allowed per game and DEAD LAST in TFL allowed per game.
MEGA Minutia
TREND GUY just hit the jackpot with this game as the home team is 14-2 SU in the last 16 meetings between these two teams…..The under is 7-1 last 8 games between these two teams at Auburn.
Summary
Hard to pick a side in this one. The line of -3/-3.5 looks perfect.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: Strong lean under any number 45 or better.