Mississippi St at Massachusetts – Preview and Prediction
MISS ST 22 UMASS (45)
Implied Projected Score: Miss St 33.5 UMass 11.5
MEGALOCKS LINE – Miss St 18
The Game
Mississippi St takes a break from SEC play and visits Massachusetts on Saturday for a wickidd haad battle with the Minutemen. The Bulldogs want to get to 2-2 heading into their bye week while UMass is feeling pretty good after a home win vs FIU last week.
The Match-Up
Miss St offense vs UMass defense
The formula has been pretty simple. QB Fitzgerald hand off to Holloway. Fitzgerald on the keeper. Fitzgerald bubble screen to Fred Ross. QB Damian Williams does stuff in relief. The Bulldogs have not exceeded 27 points yet this season but do face their easiest test of the season. They have the size and speed (in comparison to UMass) that can lead to a big play at any time, but then again, the Minutemen did a pretty good job at Florida in week 1. The Minutemen have only given up 24,26,13 in three games so far and they have played well beyond our expectations. We have a hard time seeing the Bulldogs get past 28 points in this game.
UMass offense vs Miss St defense
Yikes. UMass ranks last in the FBS in yards per play (3.68) and now faces an SEC defense in week four. QB Andrew Ford looked very good last week (278 Y 3 TD 1 INT) and we have to believe he will get the start again regardless of the health of Ross Comis. RB Marquis Young is going to have some big games this season but it probably will not come this weekend. The OL has not been playing well and they are at a big disadvantage this week. Hard to see the Minutemen getting past 10 points although they will fight you for 60 minutes.
MEGA Minutia
The combined scores in Miss St games this season are 41,41,43….This total looks about right at 45 although it is tempting to grab a small taste of the under….Fitzgerald is the best running threat they have faced at QB by a longshot so we expect Fitz to grab 100+ on the ground in this one.
Summary
Move along. There is nothing to see here. Expect maybe a small taste of the under…….
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: Slight lean under any number 44 or better.