Penn St at Michigan – Preview and Prediction
MICHIGAN 18.5 PENN ST (56.5)
Implied Projected Score: Michigan 37.5 Penn St 19.0
MEGALOCKS LINE – Michigan 17
The Game
Michigan has been 90+ point favorites in their first three games combined and now get to open Big 10 play with a match-up against rival Penn St. The Wolverines are big favorites once again this week but the Nittany Lions have proven they can score some points and you never know what might happen when these two teams hook up.
The Match-Up
Michigan offense vs Penn St defense
They are rolling. The running game is been pretty good. QB Wilton Speight has been REALLY good hitting 64% of his passes with only 1 INT that came early in the first week. The WR group is dangerous and TE Jake Butt is dominating once again this season. The Penn St defense has been getting PENETRATION in the form of sacks and tackles for loss but have had a disappointing start to the season. they are ranked #92 in run defense and were shredded by Pitt in week two. More good news? MEAGLOCKS Big 10 INSIDERS have told us that the Nittany Lions will likely be without their entire starting LB unit. Even for Linebacker U – this is a problem. We smell points.
Penn St offense vs Michigan defense
Penn St has a really good RB (S Barkley – 258 yards, 6 TD) and an excellent group of WRs. We do have a hard time seeing them running the ball consistently at Michigan (#113 rushing FBS), and while they will make some big plays in the passing game, we think that the Wolverines will also make some big plays in terms of sacks and interceptions. Defense and special teams have been creating points all season and this week will probably be no different.
MEGA Minutia
Two of the last three meetings have been very close including the 4-OT classic in 2013 that players are still recovering from to this day…..HC Harbaugh is now 6-3 ATS as a home fav with Michigan including a 2-1 mark in 2016….We think Michigan’s first road game comes sometime in late November.
Summary
Our initial take was too many points. Then we dug in. It feels like Michigan will be able to do whatever they want and will probably win by between 14-24 points. We are not high on the Nittany Lions defense and cannot trust them to make many stops.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: None