Vanderbilt at Western Kentucky – Preview and Prediction
WKU 7.5 Vanderbilt (51.5)
Implied Projected Score: WKU 29.5 Vanderbilt 22
MEGALOCKS LINE – WKU 8
The Game
The Hilltoppers are exactly where they thought they would be at this point in the season. The Alabama game was an automatic loss and now they take on Vandy and Houston Baptist before conference play begins. The Commodores have been generally horrible but still managed to top MTSU in a 25492874 STAR MEGALOCKS LOSER despite being outgained by 20,000 yards. If they can somehow squeak another win out they would be 2-2 heading into conference play. Truth be told, it looks like the old pump-the-ratings must-win for Vanderbilt if they want to make a bowl game.
The Match-Up
WKU offense vs Vanderbilt defense
The Hilltopper offense is down just a notch this season. QB Mike White has been fine but has only managed to throw 5 TD passes. The RB unit has been decimated by injury. There is still enough on offense to give Vandy a lot of trouble particularly at WR where WKU can boast two WR with over 300 yards receiving. We can see Vandy shutting down the run game for the most part and forcing WKU to throw most of the time. Hey, feels like a replay of the MTSU game. WKU can hopefully do better than 60 bubble screens.
Vanderbilt offense vs WKU defense
Paging Jay Cutler. The Commodores’ QB situation is still ugly although Klye Shurmur has proven to be acceptable at times. Star RB Ralph Webb was held to under 70 yards rushing last week and he needs to go for 125+ for Vandy to have a shot in this one. Possibly more. WKU has had trouble getting off the field on 3rd down (ranked #95 3rd down D) and it is not unthinkable that the Commodores annoy the heck out of everyone and stay in this game until the 4th quarter.
MEGA Minutia
Last season’s match-up was a 14-12 WKU win on the road…..Even with perfect weather this time around it is hard to imagine the scoreboard lighting up on Saturday….WKU was outgained by Miami Ohio last week in their 31-24 win….Vandy is ranked #124 in offense and #101 defense so will probably win by 24.
Summary
Logic dictates a play on Western Kentucky at home but we cannot recommend playing against the Commodores until SEC play begins. Need to observe just a bit more.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: WKU any number -8 or better. (do not watch the game if you put small potatoes on this one….just check the score on Sunday)