Wisconsin at Michigan St – Preview and Prediction
MICHIGAN ST 5 WISCONSIN (42)
Implied Projected Score: Michigan St 23.5 Wisconsin 18.5
MEGALOCKS LINE – Michigan St 5
The Game
The Badgers bring their undefeated record into East Lansing to face the similarly unblemished Michigan St Spartans. Wisconsin escaped with their lives last week as 99 point or so favorites while Sparty won a big game vs Notre Dame on the road. It’s big boy time.
The Match-Up
Michigan St offense vs Wisconsin defense
In a rare MEGALOCKS 2016 victory last weekend, the Spartans used a bruising ground attack and efficient passing game to get a big jump on the Fighting Irish. They caught a couple of breaks on turnovers to grab the momentum but there is no doubt that they are going to be a tough out in the Big 10 race.
We really like the variety they have in the running game and that is going to test out the Badgers excellent defense. They run a lot of stuff with WR RJ Shelton to the outside and pound the hammers inside. QB Tyler O’Connor looks like a great fit for this offense and we can only see them getting more dangerous as the season goes along. Michigan St is 8th in passing efficiency which tells you that teams are respecting the run and not as worried as they should be about the ability of O’Connor to MATRICULATE in the passing game.
The Badgers’ defense has been really good this season but appear to be missing the PENETRATION of former LB Joe Schobert (9.5 sacks, 19.5 TFL LY). Or maybe it is the new DC. In any event, the Badgers are 8th in the Big 10 in sacks and 11th in TFL per game, so it is clear (although September) that they need to get more chaos created on defense. Michigan St does not bring anything to the table they cannot handle but it is the maddening consistency that they must worry about.
Wisconsin offense vs Michigan St defense
Here we go. The Alex Hornibrook era begins for the Badgers. The redshirt freshman guided the Badgers back from a 4th Q deficit against Georgia St last week and looked good doing it. Hornibrook may make some mistakes but he definitely brings more upside to the table. The key will be establishing the running attack. They could only manage 187 yards on 49 (!) carries against Georgia St last week and the Sparty run defense was very good (even before they got the big lead). We are skeptical about the ground game doing much but they just might be able to do ENOUGH in what should be a close low-scoring game.
MEGA Minutia
The last time Wisconsin won in East Lansing was 2002 and the #1 movie was Spider-Man…..Amaze your cheating golf buddies with that gem….Michigan St is going to have to work hard on 3rd downs as the Badgers have only allowed a 21% conversion rate so far…..Sparty should take some consolation in the fact that LSU’s RB Fournette managed to rumble for 138 yards so they have to be patient with the ground attack.
Summary
The change at QB introduces some uncertainty that we are having a hard time dealing with at this time. Sparty should win this game straight up, and although we lean that way, it is hard to lay more than a FG in this match-up.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: Small leanage under any number 42 or better.