Baylor at Iowa St – Preview and Prediction
BAYLOR 16.5 IOWA ST (61)
Implied Projected Score: Baylor 38.75 Iowa St 22.25
MEGALOCKS LINE – Baylor -17
The Game
Very quietly. Shhhh. Baylor has started out 4-0 and if they can get past Iowa St on Saturday afternoon they will head into their bye week at 5-0 with Kansas on deck. They disposed of one of the Big 12 favorites Oklahoma St last week. Iowa St is in a really tough spot starting out at 1-3 and need five wins to become bowl eligible. When we look at their schedule we wish them luck. Keep in mind, however, one big upset win would probably make their season.
The Match-Up
Baylor offense vs Iowa St defense
The Bears have only played one formidable team thus far (Oklahoma St) but have been very efficient on offense. They are not putting up the numbers that we are used to seeing, but nonetheless, they are ranked 19th in rushing and 23 in passing. Seth Russell is providing fantastic leadership and performance (13 TD 4 INT) while the running game can boast three 200-yard rushers. Iowa St is ranked #102 in rush defense and does not appear to have the front 7 to be able to give Baylor trouble. Baylor should be able to get into the 30s quite easily.
Iowa St offense vs Baylor defense
MEGALOCKS BIG 12 DEPTH CHART INSIDERS note that #1 QB Joel Lanning is listed as numero uno on the depth chart this week. Jacob Park did a nice job last week vs San Jose St so we feel that Iowa St will get decent QB play this week. The bad news for Iowa St is that Baylor is ranked #1 in pass efficiency defense and held a very good Oklahoma St QB to 279 yards and 0 TDs. Their odds of staying within the number improve dramatically if they can get RB Mike Warren rolling in the running game.
MEGA Mini-Bites
Trend players will note that Baylor is just 7-10-1 ATS L18 as a road fav while Iowa St is just 17-20-2 ATS the last 10 seasons as a home dog…….Baylor is ranked #121 in penalty yards per game so maybe Iowa St can get the bonus of plenty of free yards.
Summary
Feels like a stay away game to us. The point spread of -17 looks about right and the total is very sharp at 57-59.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: Minor leanage under any number 61 or better.