Kansas St at W Virginia – Preview and Prediction
WEST VIRGINIA 3.5 KANSAS ST (54)
Implied Projected Score: West Virginia 28.75 Kansas St 25.25
MEGALOCKS LINE – W VIRGINIA -3
The Game
The undefeated Mountaineers open Big 12 season at home this Saturday when they face the Kansas St Wildcats. West Virginia survived a tough battle with BYU last week while the Wildcats enter the game 2-1 after an opening week loss at Stanford.
The Match-Up
West Virginia offense vs Kansas St defense
West Virginia brings an exciting and balanced attack into this game. Skyler Howard has played well at QB and the Mountaineers boast two 200-yard RBs (Crawford, Shell). The OL has been particularly strong allowing only one sack all season. Even that sack was just Howard running out of bounds for a loss. If they play mistake-free football, or at least execute a relatively clean game, Kansas St is going to have their hands full.
The interesting thing about this series (will mention this again later) is that Kansas St has won every game the past four seasons. In three of those four years, West Virginia had a pretty dynamic offense similar to this season’s version. Yes, the Wildcats seem to have the formula to slow these guys down. The last two games were 26-20 and 24-23 wins. And this might be the best Kansas St defense we have seen in a couple of years.
Kansas St offense vs West Virginia defense
The Mountaineers were gashed on the ground last week for 280 yards (!) at a remarkable 7 yards a pop. Guess what ? Kansas St likes to play a physical run-first style and QB Jesse Ertz is a great fit for that game plan. Ertz has only thrown one INT all season and also leads the team in rushing. Kansas St has a deep stable of RBs (maybe no stars – but solid) and some underrated WRs. They are not flashy but get the job done. The Mountaineers could be in for a long day as their run defense has been very poor and they cannot seem to get off the field on 3rd down (#114).
MEGA Mini-Bites
Kansas St is the only team in the FBS that has played exactly 2.5 games…..Last week their game was called at halftime due to weather issues…..West Virginia is 1-5 SU vs Kansas St and have not beat them since 1930….Probably irrelevant….but then again….this game looks awfully similar to the match-ups over the past few seasons….MEGALOCKS BIG 12 INSIDERS tell us that PK Josh Lambert should be back for W Virginia this week after serving a 3-game suspension…..Trend players note that W Virginia conference games are 14-3 to the under L17 and overall 11-3 to the under L14 at home.
Summary
It’s deja vu all over again – Yogi Berra. The more we look at this game the more it feels like we are going to see a similar result. The difference is that we still are not clear on how good this Kansas St team might be in 2016. We do know that they battled Stanford for 60 minutes on the road and should have the running game, defense and special teams to give the Mountaineers some trouble. Again.
Conclusion
Official play: Kansas St +3.5 -106 (do not play lower than +3)