Louisville at Clemson – Preview and Prediction
LOUSIVILLE 2 CLEMSON (68)
Implied Projected Score: Louisville 35 Clemson 33
MEGALOCKS LINE – Clemson 3
The Game
Here we go ! There is a lot on the line Saturday night as two of the best teams in college football go head-to-head in Death Valley. Louisville is almost assured of a trip to the ACC Title Game with a win in this game. Clemson still has to face Florida St but would be in the driver’s seat with a victory. It does not get much better than this !
The Match-Up
Louisville offense vs Clemson defense
The Cardinals have been scoring at a ridiculous pace so far in 2016 (70,62,63,59), and while the competition has been suspect, any time you hang 60 on Florida St is it an accomplishment. The Seminoles defense looks pretty average this season but you cannot deny how easy the Cardinals are making it look in 2016. QB Lamar Jackson faces a big road test this week but has been spectacular. 13 TDs passing and 12 TDs rushing. He throws a phenomenal deep ball. RB Brandon Radcliff is averaging an impossible 9.3 yards per carry (!!) on 46 attempts.
The Clemson defense has been a rock once again. They have not faced a QB even close to what Louisville brings to the table but their run defense and ability to PENETRATE continues to be their calling card on defense. The key will be to disrupt things in the backfield (Marshall did it for about a quarter and a half lol) and not let Jackson run wild. Almost impossible to do, but Clemson is one of maybe 2-3 teams that has a shot of containing him and keeping the Cardinals from going bananas. The Tigers are ranked #2 in pass efficiency defense, but as noted earlier, their secondary has not been tested.
Clemson offense vs Louisville defense
We actually feel pretty good about the Clemson defense holding up well enough during this game. It is the offense we are concerned about which sounds really strange. Last season the Tigers finished #21 in rushing offense and both Gallman and Watson had over 1,000 yards rushing. Right now, Gallman is barely averaging 4 yards per carry and Watson has 120 yards net on the ground. They are ranked #85 in rushing offense in 2016. Now they have faced a couple of decent run defenses but it will not get any easier this week.
Watson has also had trouble hitting the deep ball this year and we have not seen the separation from the WRs that we expected. Clemson has a lot of weapons, but it will be the leadership and experience of Watson that wins this game, if indeed, the Tigers get the victory. It is hard to see a scenario where the Tigers just find their mojo after being pretty average by their standards through the first month of the season.
The Louisville defense is ranked #13 and is also excellent at getting PENETRATION. The schedule has been light but they held an excellent Florida St offense to 20 points.
MEGA Mini-Bites
Some trends for those who want that kind of info…..Cards are 28-11-1 ATS L40 away…..Clemson home games are 13-5 to the under L18…..It will be interesting to see what the line does all the way up to kickoff…..Could it possibly end up Cards -3 ??……If anyone wants to duct tape that Hikutini dude on Louisville to the bus seat that would be awesome….then nobody will need to see the Look-at-me-scooping-ice-cream-into-my-mouth-after-scoring-a-TD celebration….feed me…..Ugh….Hey maybe it is because everyone on defense is worried about the good players and intentionally leaves you wide open ?…..MEGALOCKS sermon completed.
Summary
Gonna think about the side. If we can catch a FG with Clemson we will probably go for it. We are drawn to the under for very strange reasons. Need to think on this game a bit longer. But not too much longer.
Conclusion
Official play: None. Yet.
Lean: Clemson any number +1.5 or better. +3 would probably make it an official play. Stay tuned. We also have minor leanage to the under (don’t ask) and would wait as long as possible as we feel the total will keep climbing. 68 would be good. 70 ideal.