Oklahoma at TCU – Preview and Prediction
OKLAHOMA 3.5 TCU (69.5)
Implied Projected Score: Oklahoma 36.5 TCU 33.0
MEGALOCKS LINE – Oklahoma -4
The Game
It’s now or never time for the Sooners as they open up Big 12 play against TCU on the road Saturday afternoon. Oklahoma has two losses already but one was to a very good Houston team and another was at home to potentially unbeatable (?) Ohio St. TCU has had little trouble with patsies South Dakota St, Iowa St and SMU but they did lose to Arkansas at home in week two. This game should be fun.
The Match-Up
Oklahoma offense vs TCU defense
This game is interesting for a number of reasons. One of the things that we all have to guess about it how good the Sooners’ offense really is after playing two games against TWO of the best Ds in college football. Houston’s is very talented. Ohio St is just generally awesome. TCU is #85 is pass efficiency defense despite playing a soft schedule and we think that Baker Mayfield and company can torch that secondary. Particularly with the running threats of Mixon, Perine and Mayfield to worry about. The OL has given up too many sacks and TFL for our liking, but as we eluded to, Houston and Ohio St are both really good and we feel that the Sooners will have a much easier time this weekend.
TCU offense vs Oklahoma defense
Kenny Hill is a very dynamic QB. Here is the thing. Oklahoma has already faced Greg Ward and JT Barrett, so realistically, this is the THIRD best QB the Sooners have faced. And all three of those guys are run/pass wizards. We have to feel off a bye week that Oklahoma can be mentally and physically prepared for the challenge. RB Kyle Hicks has 314 yards rushing so far and 5 TDs and TCU will need to be balanced on offense to win this game.
Kenny Hill has only thrown 6 TDs vs 4 Int, and at least on paper, the Sooners match-up pretty well in the secondary against an excellent group of WRs. The Sooners will have to do a better job of getting PENETRATION vs the TCU OL than they have in previous games.
MEGA Mini-Bites
TREND GUY may double-down after the Clemson/G Tech debacle as the Horned Frogs are 14-5 ATS L19 games at home…..They are 1-1 this season including a SU loss to Arkansas as a 7-pt fav…..We do not like taking a stroll down NARRATIVE STREET too often when handicapping but this game can start a rebound for the Sooners and a run to the Big 12 Title….of course TCU wants to win the Big 12 (duh) but the Sooners will lose this game IMO IF they are NOT good enough and not because they are looking ahead….We can live with that risk…..Per Sagarin ratings the Sooners have played the #2 schedule while TCU has dealt with #79.
Summary
We will take the better defense and more balanced offense at a short price. TCU just does not look like the beasts we are used to seeing every year.
Conclusion
Official play: OKLAHOMA -2 -110 (AS SENT OUT MONDAY 11:00 EST)……Would play up to -3. Line moved up fairly quickly after our release but there is still lots of time for it to come back a bit (see USC / Utah last week).