Auburn at Mississippi St – Preview and Prediction
AUBURN 3 MISS ST (54.5)
Implied Projected Score: Auburn 28.75 Miss St 25.75
MEGALOCKS LINE – Auburn -1
The Game
Two SEC West rivals go head-to-head on Saturday in Starkville as the Auburn Tigers meet the Mississippi St Bulldogs. Auburn is sitting at 3-2 with one conference loss, and overall, have to be feeling pretty good about where they stand. Their only losses have been to Clemson and Texas A&M. Last season was a disappointing campaign for the Tigers (7-6) and they look to keep their momentum going this weekend. The Bulldogs were upset in their opener vs S Alabama and struggled a bit with UMass on the road, but they come into this contest fresh of a bye at 2-2. They are 1-1 in conference with a win over S Carolina and a loss to LSU.
The Match-Up
Auburn offense vs Miss St defense
Now this is what we are talking about. After averaging less than 200 yards per game on the ground in 2015, the Tigers’ ground attack is rolling at a 270 yards per contest so far in 2016. The stats are a little pumped up by games against Arkansas St and ULM, but the fact remains that they also played Clemson, LSU and Texas A&M. The Bulldogs are ranked #19 in the NCAA in run defense but have really only been challenged by one good ground attack (LSU – 177 yards at 4.5 per carry). The good news is that the Bulldogs can handle what the Tigers have to offer in the passing game even though QB Sean White has been very efficient. They are also very familiar with the Auburn attack and have had an extra week to prepare. Auburn ran for 201 yards in last year’s game and we can see another 200+ yard day on Saturday. The question will be can Auburn get TDs instead of FGs (see LSU game) ?
Miss St offense vs Auburn defense
Nick Fitzgerald has done a nice job at QB. He has only thrown one interception all season and leads the team in rushing yards (329) while getting 7 yards a pop. Fitzgerald is the main reason the Bulldogs have managed to still rank pretty highly in rushing yards per game (#31) but they need to do a better job of converting on 3rd downs (#120) to keep the Auburn offense off the field. Fitzgerald has not been lighting it up through the air but they do have a couple of decent WRs (F Ross, D Gray) that will keep the Auburn secondary alert.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
Miss St has won the last two home games vs Auburn but that was with Dak Attack at QB….Miss St is a tough fade in conference games (16-6 ATS L22) and HC Dan Mullen is 10-5 SU off a bye week…..Auburn has only given up more than 20 points ONCE all season….Miss St games are 34-16-1 to the under L51.
Summary
Seems like a coin toss to us. Auburn feels like the more well-rounded team with a slightly better defense but we are not crazy about laying a FG. This is the game where Miss St either proves us right (a stinker) or proves us wrong (a win). Not sure how that will break.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: Lean to under any number 54 or better.