Georgia Southern at Arkansas St – Preview and Prediction
GA SOUTHERN 7 ARKANSAS ST (57)
Implied Projected Score: Ga Southern 32 Arkansas St 25
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ga Southern -4
The Game
It’s game time for Arkansas St. The Red Wolves have struggled through the first four games of the season including a home loss to FCS opponent Central Arkansas. They won the Sun Belt Title last season with an 8-0 mark in the conference after a 1-3 start, so if you are a believer in history repeating itself, Arkansas St has everybody right where they want them. Georgia Southern is off to a nice 3-1 beginning with their only loss coming against MAC JUGGERNAUT Western Michigan. It doesn’t get much better than Wednesday night FUNBELT.
The Match-Up
Ga Southern offense vs Arkansas St defense
The Eagles running attack is ready to unleash a world of pain on the Red Wolves defense that is ranked #117 in the FBS in run defense. Georgia Southern has ran the ball well this season (#4 FBS) and ideally will have both QBs ready to roll for this game. QB Favian Upshaw is more dangerous but less reliable than Kevin Ellison. Upshaw is the team’s leading rusher and is averaging over 10 yards an attempt when he MATRICULATES in the passing game. These two teams did not match-up last season but on the surface this feels like a long night on defense for a poor and undisciplined Arkansas St stop unit. The Eagles were (-4) in turnover margin against Western Michigan so they really need to focus on ball security. They are converting on over 50% of their 3rd downs so they just need to avoid shooting themselves in the foot or the face and the points will come.
Arkansas St offense vs Ga Southern defense
What a grease fire. The ineptitude of the Red Wolves offense has surprised us this season. The good news is that QB Justice Hansen has shown flashes of ability throwing the football and promises to test the Georgia Southern secondary. Hansen threw for over 400 yards in the loss to Central Arkansas and played well in relief vs Utah St. The running game has been very poor this season and we think that if the Red Wolves stay in this game it is going to be on the golden arm of the QB. The Eagles gave up 270 yards and 4 TDs passing vs W Michigan and allowed 279 yards passing vs S Alabama.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
TREND GUY will note that Arkansas St conference games are 22-4 to the over L26…..Ga Southern is 6-2 ATS as a road fav L8 including a cover vs S Alabama in week two….The Eagles are #7 in time of possession while the Red Wolves are #115……Arkansas St was on a 26-4 SU winning run at home before losing their first two home dates this season.
Summary
Our first reaction was to take the points. There is some perceived value in the line. And then we remembered how painful it is to watch Blake Anderson coach football games.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Over any number 58 or better.