Temple at Memphis – Preview and Prediction
MEMPHIS 10 TEMPLE (60)
Implied Projected Score: Memphis 35 Temple 25
MEGALOCKS LINE – Memphis -7
The Game
The Memphis Tigers host Temple in their AAC opener under the Thursday night lights. The Tigers are sitting at 3-1 after a loss to Ole Miss on the road. Temple has not looked, well, like Temple so far this season. That being said, the Owls are still 3-2 including 1-0 in the conference after a beatdown of SMU last weekend. This starts an 8-game AAC run for the Owls.
The Match-Up
Memphis offense vs Temple defense
QB Riley Ferguson has done a good job so far this season leading the Memphis offense. Ferguson has thrown 11 TD passes in the first four games but did throw 3 INT in the tough game against Ole Miss last week. Memphis is 21st in passing yards and 20th in passing efficiency. They are getting the job done through the air. Tigers also feature two RBs with over 200 yards rushing and Patrick Taylor is averaging over 8 yards a pop.
The huge elephant in the room is the fact that Memphis has only played one real defense. SE Missouri St, Kansas and Bowling Green did not put up much resistance. One could argue that the Tigers’ offense needs to be tested a few more times before we know how good they really are in 2016.
Temple has given up 20+ points in every game other than their scrimmage vs Stony Brook. Charlotte and Penn St both put up over 400 yards on the Owls. Leading DB Sean Chandler is out for this game and that is not going to help matters. Temple’s pass defense rates very high in efficiency (#10 FBS) but they have only faced one decent QB in five games (Penn St). They are not getting much of a pass rush going. Much like the Tigers, we are going to start finding more out about the Owls over the next few weeks. We have a feeling that the Tigers are going to get into the 30s one way or another.
Temple offense vs Memphis defense
Memphis has the #48 ranked defense in the FBS, but as noted earlier, the schedule makes it difficult to jump to any conclusions. Three easy games and one killer. Ole Miss tore through them for over 600 yards but that team is an offensive machine. Temple QB Phillip Walker has thrown more INT than TDs so far in 2016 (7 vs 6) and has to do a better job of protecting the football in this game. Even SMU was gifted a pick 6. We do not know how good the Memphis run D is yet this season but Temple will have to use Jahad Thomas ad Ryquell Armstread liberally in the running game to keep the chains moving and the Tigers’ offense off the field. Temple has some playmakers on offense but we are worried about INTs. Call us crazy. The good news for Temple is that Memphis has not been getting the PENETRATION that is necessary on defense. They are ranked 11th in the AAC in sacks and 9th in TFL.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
Temple is 8-3 ATS L11 in conference games…..The Owls’ Sean Chandler is going to be missed in the secondary….last week he missed his first game ever….last year he had 5.5 TFL….10 PBU….4 INT…and was a 2nd team AAC selection…..Both teams are allowing less than 5 yards per play on defense yet the total is in the 60s….Seems like oddsmakers agree that these defenses may be dressed up statistically due to competition.
Summary
It feels like we are getting more points than we deserve. There is a bit of perceived value with the Owls. Of course, the risk is that the Memphis passing game just rips through the Owls’ secondary without blinking. It’s hard to handicap this game with confidence due to the quality of competition that both teams have faced.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Temple any number 10 or better. See if you can get 11 on game day if you are really desperate to back a side in this one.