Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech – Preview and Prediction
WKU 3 LOUISIANA TECH (67)
Implied Projected Score: WKU 35 Louisiana Tech 32
MEGALOCKS LINE – WKU -3
The Game
This should be a fun one. It’s a Thursday night C-USA match-up that promises to deliver a lot of points. At least on paper. WKU is sitting at 3-2 with losses to Alabama (duh?) and Vanderbilt (OT). They boast wins over Rice, Miami Ohio and Houston Baptist. Louisiana Tech is hopeful of starting a run to the C-USA Title game but they need to start taking care of business. The Hilltoppers are on the other side of the conference but the Bulldogs are already sitting with one conference loss (MTSU).
The Match-Up
WKU offense vs Louisiana Tech defense
Nobody was going to be an efficient as former star QB Brandon Doughty was last season. However, Mike White has looked pretty good so far managing the offense and hitting a lot of big plays in the passing game. White is averaging almost 10 (!) yards per attempt and has a lot of options at WR including Taywan Taylor and Nicholas Norris who both have over 400 yards receiving while averaging over 17 yards a catch. The WKU depth at RB has been hit hard by injuries but they are still effective when needed. Anthony Wales has 341 yards rushing (6.0) and is a former 1,000 yard rusher. The OL has done a great job of allowing very little PENETRATION this season and the Bulldogs are going to have their hands full on Thursday night.
Louisiana Tech is ranked #97 in total defense and #111 in pass efficiency defense. Now to be fair, they played Texas Tech and MTSU in back-to-back weeks, but this match-up is very similar. The Bulldogs have done better with more conventional offenses this season (including a one-point loss to Arkansas in week one) and they figure to struggle once again on defense this week. Note that UTEP even managed to move the football on them through the air last week with Ryan Metz at QB.
Louisiana Tech offense vs WKU defense
QB Ryan Higgins has been a bit banged up, and he missed week one due to suspension, but he has been firing darts most of the season for the Bulldogs (12 TDs 2 INT). WR Trent Taylor is #3 in the FBS in receptions per game and #3 in receiving yards. The running game has been dangerous with Jarred Craft popping a big run seemingly every drive (551 yards, 7.2). Statistically speaking, the WKU defense has been much better than the Bulldogs stop unit and are ranked #1(Tie) in C-USA in yards per play allowed on defense (4.73). La Tech is a yuuuuuge challenge but it appears WKU may be better than we thought on defense. An added bonus is that the Hilltoppers are ranked #2 in C-USA in both TFL and sacks per game.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
Last season’s match-up between these two teams was a 41-38 thriller in favor of WKU….MEGALOCKS C-USA HISTORIANS will tell you that two years ago WKU came to Ruston and got blown up 59-10…..WKU is on a 13-game conference winning streak (!!) but are 7-15-1 ATS L23 away games….Something probably has to give….Unless the ‘Toppers win by 1 or 2 points.
Summary
The spread and total look about right to us. We usually lean to the team with the better defense (WKU ?) trusting that they will make a few extra stops. It just seems like a game that could go either way.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: None.