New Mexico at Boise St – Preview and Prediction
BOISE ST 17 NEW MEXICO (61)
Implied Projected Score: Boise St 39 New Mexico 22
MEGALOCKS LINE – 14
The Game
The Broncos continue their run for an undefeated season (4-0) with a road game at New Mexico on Friday night. Last season they tallied over 600 yards offense at home vs the Lobos and still lost the game. New Mexico is 2-2 and already have a conference win under their belt after last week’s win over San Jose St.
The Match-Up
Boise St offense vs New Mexico defense
Boise St has not been as explosive as we are used to seeing. Yet. QB Brett Rypien has been efficient but has only managed 6 TD passes so far this season. The real story on offense is the McWEAPON – Jeremy McNichols – who has 504 yards rushing and 216 yards receiving in just four games. New Mexico has struggled on defense after being sneaky good in 2015 (28.4 ppg allowed) as they have given up 37,41,32 in three games vs FBS teams. And those teams were New Mexico St, Rutgers and San Jose St. Ouch. The Lobos are gonna have to tighten up in a hurry because Boise St looks poised to put up 500+ yards this week.
New Mexico offense vs Boise St defense
Here comes the running game. The Lobos averaged over 250 yards per game rushing last season and are off to a fine start this year (#2 rushing FBS) while playing relatively soft competition. Lamar Jordan is getting the start at QB again this week (Apodoca out) and we really like his explosiveness in the running game. Don’t forget, he had over 800 yards rushing last season in limited action. Overall, the New Mexico running game is pretty devastating, and they have a lot of depth at the position. RB Teriyon Gipson is averaging an impossible 12.9 yards per carry (!) on 31 carries so far this season but is listed as questionable for this game. The Broncos run defense is ranked #5 early on and will need to post a similar performance to last season when they only allowed 195 yards rushing on 39 carries.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
The last time Boise St visited New Mexico (2014) the scoreboard operator dislocated a number of fingers as the final score was 60-49 Boise St…..Boise St road games are 24-9 to the over L33.
Summary
The point spread and total seem about right. New Mexico has not shown they can stop anybody with a pulse but it is always a tricky proposition to lay double digits against a team that can run the ball like New Mexico.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Boise St team total over any number 40 or better.