Alabama at Tennessee – Preview and Prediction
ALABAMA 13 TENNESSEE (57)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Alabama -13 Sagarin ratings – Alabama -11.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Alabama 35 Tennessee 22
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Alabama 38 Tennessee 24
The Game
ROLL TIDE. Alabama is off to an impressive 6-0 start with victories over USC, Ole Miss and Arkansas. They have scored 34+ in every game this season. Their defense and special teams have been helping out in that department. So basically, every play run by either team will likely lead to an Alabama TD.
How about the Volunteers ? They have been gutting out wins all season and finally fell a bit short last week in a tough 2-OT loss to Texas A&M. They have shown a ton of heart but are currently really banged up. Can they bring their play up to the level needed to compete with ROLL TIDE ?
The Match-Up
Alabama offense vs Tennessee defense
The Tide have been doing pretty much whatever they want on offense this season. They are scoring on everyone. Now they get to face an injured Volunteer defense that has been slugging it out every week. The Bama run game is #3 in the SEC in rushing yards per game and rushing yards per carry. Tennessee’s run defense is in the SEC’s bottom half of the defensive side of those categories. It feels like a lot of punishing runs and timely MATRICULATION in the passing game for QB Jalen Hurts. Alabama should easily get into the 30s.
Tennessee offense vs Alabama defense
The Volunteers go up against the #1 run defense in college football this weekend. With or without RB Jalen Hurd that is going to be a tough task. Without the threat of a consistent rushing attack it is hard to imagine the Volunteers moving the ball consistently. Alabama’s defense has given up some yards through the air this season but have also faced some good passing offenses. We are skeptical that Tennessee has the weapons in the passing game to move the ball against this defense. And Alabama has scored 8 TDs on defense. So there is that.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
Tennessee has covered the number the past two seasons….19-14 and 34-20 ROLL TIDE victories….TREND GUY will note that the road team is 15-5-1 ATS L21 meetings and Alabama is 8-3-1 ATS L12.
Summary
From a perceived value standpoint, the line of -13 seems to be about right to us. The big concern for Tennessee has to be the physical and emotional toll of playing in so many tough games.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Leans: Alabama -13 or better.