Memphis at Tulane – Preview and Prediction
MEMPHIS 11.5 TULANE (53.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Memphis -13 Sagarin ratings – Memphis -16
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Memphis 32.5 Tulane 21
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Memphis 37 Tulane 24
The Game
Hey hey hey ! The Tulane Green Wave have got off to a really nice start this season. They have not played the toughest competition but they are currently 3-2 and only 11 points from a 5-0 start. HC Willie Fritz has turned things around pretty quickly. Memphis survived a shaky performance vs Temple and are 4-1 with their only loss coming on the road at Ole Miss.
The Match-Up
Memphis offense vs Tulane defense
Here is a prime example of one of the challenges in handicapping college football. Memphis QB Riley Ferguson has looked really good this season but he did have a bit of a tough time vs Temple last week. No TD passes and only 174 yards passing. Tulane is statistically rock solid against the pass BUT they have played five weak passing teams – Wake, Southern, Navy, ULL, UMass. So ?? Do we think the Memphis attack will be too good ? Or, can Tulane shut them down and keep this game close ? The problem we see for Tulane is not only the really good passing attack coming to town, but the fact that these are the same players that were torched by good passing offenses near the end of last season. New DC. True. It is really hard to know how this will break on Friday night. Memphis can also run the ball pretty well so that may be what ends up really causing Tulane fits.
Tulane offense vs Memphis defense
Tulane has been competitive all season despite the fact that they have done almost ZERO in the passing game. That is no criticism of QB Glen Cuiellette because this is a major system change for the Green Wave. Memphis has been pretty decent against the run this season (#37) and match up well on paper with the #13 ranked Tulane rushing attack. Tulane has a talented a deep RB group and WR Terren Encalade can burn you when you least expect it. The Green Wave is going to have to find a way to move the chains on 3rd down. They are ranked #125 in 3rd down conversions while the Tigers are only allowing a 24.7% success rate (#6 FBS) on defense. Not impossible. Just going to be tough.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
Both teams do a great job with turnover margin….Memphis #7….Tulane #4…….Memphis has won 9 straight in the series and are 12-2-1 ATS L15 vs the Green Wave….We say reset the stats since Tulane is a totally different offense with a really good HC…..Memphis is coming off a big win vs Temple and have Navy on deck….not the most ideal spot for them…..OBSESSIVE TREND GUY will note that Tulane is 0-9 ATS L9 on Friday nights.
Summary
Can Memphis light up the Tulane secondary ? Can Tulane convert on 3rd downs ? These are the tough questions. These are the Days Of Our Lives. Never crazy about laying 11+ when the opposing team has a really good running game and are at home. Ask Houston about that.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: Lean to over any number 54 or better. Feels a bit low but if Tulane holds the ball for 35 minutes……yikes. Small potatoes.