Mississippi St at BYU – Preview and Prediction
BYU 7 MISSISSIPPI ST (56)
MEGALOCKS LINE – BYU -8.5 Sagarin ratings – BYU -7
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: BYU 31.5 Mississippi St 24.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: BYU 35 Mississippi 31
The Game
Whoa. BYU SHOCKED THE WORLD (ok, maybe not ?) with a big win on the road vs Michigan St last weekend to improve to 3-3. That record is pretty impressive given the schedule they have played so far this season. Mississippi St really got whacked at home vs Auburn, and in fact, they were down 35-0 at the half. One thing is pretty certain. Given the last four games of the season (Texas A&M, Roll Tide, Hogs, Ole Miss), the Bulldogs better start winning some games if they want to be bowl eligible. Assuming they beat Kentucky (?) and Samford, they are still going to need to cobble together two more wins to get the magical six.
The Match-Up
BYU offense vs Mississippi St defense
It is really nice to see QB Taysom Hill staying healthy. The senior is truly gritty, and while the passing stats have not been there (6 TD, 7 INT), he has kept the team in every game and they could conceivably be 6-0 (#HotTake – like but for real – seriously dude). RB Jamaal Williams has been in full beast mode and has really helped the Cougars keep the ball and let the defense remain fresh. BYU does not MATRICULATE too often with the deep ball in the passing game but they spread the ball out pretty well to a bunch of different guys. Miss St’s strength is technically vs the run but after watching that truck on the Auburn Tigers (K Pettway) plow through them all day is it mentally difficult to imagine them slowing down a RB who has 866 yards already.
Mississippi St offense vs BYU defense
The Bulldogs are stuck with what they have right now. They do not have a dominant RB. QB Nick Fitzgerald is a really good runner but struggles with the mid-range and deep passing game. BYU should be able to shut the QB runs down for the most part. Miss St has to find a way to stay on the field (#119 3rd down conversions) or that defense is going to get worn down like many defenses do when playing at BYU. The Cougars have given up 35 and 53 to teams with good offenses. They have shut down the more vanilla attacks (16,20,17,14).
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
Miss St is 7-2 ATS L9 as a road underdog…..As noted earlier….this is close to a must win game for the Bulldogs because their November SEC schedule is brutal and as it stands now they only have two wins…..The Bulldogs’ loss to South Alabama does not look as bad after they disposed of JUGGERNAUT San Diego St…..Let’s hope the Bulldogs do not need a short FG to tie or win the game.
Summary
Both teams are in tough spots….BYU has Boise on deck which is big game….Miss St travels out west after getting their teeth kicked in and have a lot of tough SEC games on the docket the remainder of the way. On paper, it does not look good for the Bulldogs. In reality, Miss St has proven to be a tough out under HC Dan Mullen. But has the team given up on him ?
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Leans: BYU -7 or better.