NC State at Clemson – Preview and Prediction
CLEMSON 17.5 NC STATE (60.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Clemson -18 Sagarin ratings – Clemson -18.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Clemson 39 NC State 21.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Clemson 37 NC State 20
The Game
What letdown ? Clemson really looked sharp last week vs Boston College hammering the Eagles 56-10 on the road just one week after a big prime-time win over Louisville. They put their 6-0 record on the line against ACC foe NC State who stand at 4-1 and being a stretch of seven consecutive conference games.
The Match-Up
Clemson offense vs NC St defense
The Tigers have scored almost 100 points in their last two games vs BC and Louisville. The Wolfpack defense is decent enough, but they are certainly going to be tested this week. QB Deshaun Watson has struggled at times this season (44th passing efficiency FBS) but has a number of big time targets in the passing game that can be used to take advantage of the suspect Wolfpack pass defense. Even if #1 WR Mike Williams does not go this week, they have a lot of depth, including EMERGING JUGGERNAUT Deon Cain (6 TDs). Of course, RB Wayne Gallman provides great balance in the running game for the Tigers as does QB Watson.
The Wolfpack defense may be better than advertised and we need to give them some respect. The problem is that they have had decent defenses the past two seasons (26,27 ppg allowed) and have still given up 56 and 41 points to the Tigers. NC St handled W&Mary, ODU, Wake and Notre Dame in a driving rainstorm. This is true. The one game they faced a decent offense in a non-hurricane-esque environment they could not stop E Carolina and lost 33-30.
NC St offense vs Clemson defense
How about QB Ryan Finley ? 9 TD passes and 0 INT. Finley is ranked #13 in passing efficiency, and when combined with the solid running of RB Matthew Dayes, the Wolfpack will definitely keep anyone on their toes. Now of course, the Clemson defense is looking fantastic yet again. They are ranked #9 in the FBS in total defense and #5 in pass efficiency defense. The Wolfpack have kept Finley pretty clean this season but we worry about the fantastic Clemson front 7 getting too much pressure.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
Clemson has won 11 of the last 12 meetings SU……The Tigers are 13-6 L19 to the under at home…The road team is 12-4 L16 ATS when these guys hook up…..Clemson has a bye next week before taking on Florida St….NC State continues the run of horror facing Louisville.
Summary
We do not see much perceived value in the line. We are tempted to take a stab at the Wolfpack in this one, but as you know, or corporate by-laws continue to prohibit fading ROLL TIDE, Clemson or Ohio St until further notice. One thing to keep in mind is that the Tigers have looked great against the likes of GT, SC St an BC but have struggled vs decent opponents (Troy, Auburn, Louisville). We put NC State closer to the 2nd category.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Leans: Clemson TT over 40 or better.