Nebraska at Indiana – Preview and Prediction
NEBRASKA 3.5 INDIANA (57.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Nebraska -3.5 Sagarin ratings – Nebraska -8
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Nebraska 30.5 Indiana 27
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Nebraska 35 Indiana 28
The Game
Don’t look now, but YOUR Nebraska Cornhuskers are 5-0 and are fresh off a bye week, and they look to continue their undefeated season against the pesky and underrated Indiana Hoosiers on Saturday. Indiana has bagged three wins this season and are in pretty good shape to make it to their 2nd straight bowl game.
The Match-Up
Nebraska offense vs Indiana defense
Nebraska has done a really nice job this season. They have shown excellent balance and QB Tommy Armstrong should be good to go after the bye week. WR J Westerkamp is probably out but the Huskers do get WR Alonzo Moore back in the fold. They should also have a healthy offensive line. The biggest thing to note is that Nebraska is #3 in the FBS in 3rd down conversions (53%) and are a handful to stop on 3rd down due to their solid running game and the mobility and smarts of QB Armstrong. Don’t forget, he had 16 INTs last season and only has 2 of them so for in 2016. That is what an 11th year senior can do.
The Indiana defense has been a really nice surprise this season. They are ranked #49 in the FBS and held Ohio St to under 400Y offense. Ohio St managed to score TDs on two very short drives. Indiana is only allowing 5.18 yards per play, and while their run defense is going to be severely tested, we think they match-up pretty well vs the Huskers offense. They just need to limit the big plays when Nebraska chooses to MATRICULATE in the passing game.
Indiana offense vs Nebraska defense
The Indiana running game has been a bit of a disappointment so far this season. They have only managed two rushing TDs (!!) all season and that is the big reason for the horrible red zone offense (#124 FBS). Other than the Oregon game, Nebraska has been decent vs the run, so it will be interesting to see what the Hoosiers can get done running the football. QB Richard Lagow can throw the ball 4500 yards from his knees with both hands tied behind his back, but he is going to have an uphill battle against the Husker secondary that has only given up 3 (!) TD passes. Nebraska is also #21 in the FBS in 3rd down conversion defense (21%). The Indiana offense could take a step forward this weekend if stud OL Dan Feeney is back but MEGALOCKS BIG 10 DEEP INSIDERS have told us it will be a game time decision.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
Amaze your bucktoothed Parole Officer with this gem…..Nebraska and Indiana have both only allowed 1 play of 50+ yards (T1 big 10 with Ohio St)…..These teams have not met since 1978…..Nebraska HC Mike Riley is 21-10 SU off a bye week in his coaching career…..Nebraska has only allowed six points in the 4th Q all season while scoring over 70.
Summary
Both of these defenses are underrated. Nebraska has given up 3 TDs passing with 9 INT. Indiana has a 6-5 ratio. Indiana is horrible in the red zone. Neither team gives up a lot of gigantic plays. We think both teams will do well to get to 30 points. The under looks decent. Then again, we liked Maryland last week.
Conclusion
Official play: Nebraska / Indiana under 57 -104 (NOTE – it is currently at 57.5 at 12/20 shops tracked by SBR. We will use 57 as our officially official number for official purposes. Do not play lower than 56)