Ohio St at Wisconsin – Preview and Prediction
OHIO ST 10 WISCONSIN (44)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ohio St -11 Sagarin ratings – Ohio St -11.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ohio St 27 Wisconsin 17
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Ohio St 24 Wisconsin 13
The Game
It’s a BIG time BIG 10 match-up on Saturday night as the undefeated Ohio St Buckeyes travel to Madison to take on the Badgers. Wisconsin started off the season with an upset of LSU and also have a road win vs Michigan St to their credit. Despite not getting much done on offense they only lost by 7 points at Michigan. They are a tough out for anyone. Let’s go !
The Match-Up
Ohio St offense vs Wisconsin defense
You do not score 266 points in five games (!) without being really good on offense (#HotTake). The Buckeyes are ranked #3 in the FBS in rushing thanks to the devastating trifecta of Weber, Samuel and QB JT Barrett. They are only ranked #85 in passing but are #10 in efficiency. They are throwing when they want to. Not when they need to. The OL has been outstanding. They are tied for 1st in college football in TFL allowed (less than 2 per game !). They have speed to go outside and the power to run inside.
This is by far the toughest defense that the Buckeyes have faced this season. Wisconsin has been so impressive all season and have only allowed 14,10,17,6,14 points in their five contests. Their #2 ranked run defense is going to be severely tested but they did a great job against Michigan holding them to 3.0 yards per carry. The longest run Michigan had all day was 22 yards. Now of course, the Ohio St rushing attack is much different and will be tougher to defend for the Badgers D due to the mobility of JT Barrett.
Wisconsin offense vs Ohio St defense
This is the tough part. The Wisconsin defense is more than capable of keeping them in this game provided that the offense can move the chains and keep the Ohio St defense off the field. The running game has been pretty average this season and leading rusher C Clement is averaging less than 4 yards a pop. QB Alex Hornibrook is in for his toughest challenge yet. He only has 4 TD passes vs 5 INTs and is up against the #4 ranked defense that is also rated 2nd in pass efficiency defense. Oh ya, and Ohio St has not given up a rushing TD this season. Yup. Facts.
It is not impossible to think that the Badgers can play smart and move the ball. Try to get some turnovers and do their best to grab field position. On paper, it does not look good, but we all know how that “on paper” thing works out a lot of the time.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
Ohio St does not punt often – but when they do – they prefer to have a 50 YARD AVERAGE……Ohio St is 2nd in net punting while the Badgers are ranked #116…..And Wisconsin is using their backup PK….Special teams edge has to be with the Buckeyes…….Badgers are 8-2 to the under L10 at home…..Last time these two teams met Ohio St rolled them up 59-0 behind Cardale Jones and Ezekiel Elliott among others….The Buckeye passing attack is not as potent this time around.
Summary
We need just a bit more time to look this game over. The weather looks iffy with a bit of rain and wind in the forecast although that can certainly change. Someone once told us that it is really hard to cover a -10 spread if the other team has a great defense. So this is the dilemma. Do you believe the Badgers can stop the potent Ohio St attack ? Well, we see Ohio St getting some points and think Wisconsin is going to have a hard time no matter what the weather situation is like on Saturday night.
Conclusion
Official play: Ohio St -10 -108 (do not play higher than -10)