Utah at Oregon St – Preview and Prediction
UTAH 9 OREGON ST (41)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Utah -7 Sagarin ratings – Utah -11.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Utah 25 Oregon St 16
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Utah 28 Oregon St 16
The Game
The Utah Utes look to continue their march towards a PAC 12 South division title as they travel to Corvallis to take on the Oregon St Beavers. Utah has escaped with a couple of close calls (BYU, USC) to pick up wins. They also lost a tough one against Cal when they seemingly ran 24 plays from inside the 5 yard line late in the game and could not score. Oregon St has had one stinker which was a blowout loss at Colorado. Other than that, they have been decent.They outgained and outplayed a healthy and solid Minnesota team on the road in their opener, only lost to Boise by 14 at home, and held Cal to 124 yards passing (!) last week while rushing for 474 (!) in a 47-44 OT victory.
The big story in this game is the weather. MEGALOCKS CLIMATE CHANGE INSIDERS tell us that the winds are going to be crazy for this game. Gusts as some point up to 80mph, although it will probably be a lot less than that for most of the game. In any event, if you are wondering why the total has dropped from the 50 area to 41, this is the main reason.
The Match-Up
Utah offense vs Oregon St defense
Utah is going to have to run wild in this one. The weather is one major reason. The other is that the Oregon St secondary is really good (#14 in pass efficiency defense despite playing Boise, Colorado and Cal). Oh, and Utah QB Troy Williams is not the most accurate passer. He has completed less than 60% of his passes and only thrown 7 INT vs 4 TDs. The Oregon St run defense has been poor this season, but in this kind of weather scenario, we feel that the Beavers can really focus on stopping the run. Utah only ran for 3.3 yards per carry at Cal, and Cal is the same defense that Oregon St ripped through for 474 yards rushing at 9.5 yards a pop. The point is that we can see Utah moving the ball on the ground but it will not be a hot knife through butter.
A couple of bonus items. One. We read that Utah had 10 (!!) false start penalties last week against Arizona and will have to triple check that statistic. They are having problems at center. Howling winds on the road in Corvallis. Hmm. Two. Utah is very banged up a RB with their leading rusher gone for the season and a couple other guys in the rotation listed at questionable or worse for this week. The Utes were so desperate that they brought back RB Joe Williams who quit team earlier in the season. He was at practice this week and will be a game-time decision.
Oregon St offense vs Utah defense
It definitely gets tricky here ! QB Darell Garretson has only completed 55% of his passes with 3 TDs and 3 INTs. Yards per attempt ? 4.7. Whoa. The wind is not going to make things easier, but in an interesting way, it equalizes the edge that Utah may have in the passing game. It will all come down to Oregon St running the football. Inside, outside, QB. Last week they ran for 474 yards and the OL did a great job. #1 RB Ryan Nall ran for over 200Y last week and is averaging 6.9 yards per carry on the season. Nall left the game early with an ankle injury, but in the post-game press conference, said that he could have gone back in if necessary. QB Garretson had over 100Y rushing last week and has over 200Y on the season before you back out sack yardage. They also have some interest options when they need to run the ball outside. It is going to be a challenge, but if they run the ball well enough they should be able to hit a big play or two in the passing game.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
The last two times Utah visited Corvallis they won in 2OT (29-23) and lost outright 21-7……We still need to triple check that 10 false start penalty stat for Utah.
Summary
Oregon St has been a disaster ATS recently. they were 5-19 the past two seasons combined, however this season, they already have either two or three ATS wins depending on what line we use for the Boise St game. Overall, we have an improving team catching close to double digits at home in a conference game, in potentially comical weather conditions. It feels Utah will have trouble winning this one by 10+.
Conclusion
Official play: Oregon St +9 -102 (play no lower than +7.5) (play was sent out Friday am 8:58 EST)