Arkansas at Auburn – Preview and Prediction
AUBURN 9.5 ARKANSAS (55.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Auburn -6 Sagarin ratings Auburn -9
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Auburn 32.5 Arkansas 23
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Auburn 28 Arkansas 23
The Game
The last time we saw these two teams hook-up it was a 4-OT slugfest that was finally decided in favor of the Razorbacks by a score of 54-46. Auburn comes into this game with a record of 4-2 but the losses to Clemson and Texas A&M are nothing to be ashamed about. Similarly, Arkansas has a record of 5-2 with their only losses coming to – wait for it – Texas A&M and ROLL TIDE. This just might be the most entertaining game of the weekend.
The Match-Up
Auburn offense vs Arkansas defense
While it is true that the Tigers have done most of their good work against the softer defenses on their schedule, the fact remains that they are becoming quite the handful, and they get another soft defense this Saturday. The rushing attack has is really rolling and QB Sean White is not getting the credit he deserves for playing really efficiently (#11 FBS…ahead of players like Lamar Jackson, Austin Allen (!), Mitch Trubisky, etc..) and making the defense pay when they are too focused on the run. Yup, we are drinking the Auburn Kool-Aid. Bartender, we will have another.
Here are some facts on the Arkansas defense. SEC rank in defensive yards per play – last. Rushing TDs allowed – last (17). Yards per rush allowed – last (5.6). Pass efficiency defense – 10th. 3rd down conversion defense – next to last. We do really like Arkansas as a team BUT their defense is really going to get tested this week. We see Auburn having a lot of success moving the ball and keeping drives going on 3rd down.
Arkansas offense vs Arkansas defense
Arkansas definitely has the tools on offense to stay in the game. We were yuuuuge fans on QB Brandon Allen and cannot believe that AUSTIN Allen has made us almost forget him already. Allen is having a fine season and really gives the Razorbacks a ton of balance. That is evident in their above average rankings rushing and passing, not to mention that they are #2 in the FBS in time of possession. Auburn likes to hold the ball as well. But there is only one football ? #Puzzler
The Auburn defense is going to cause more problems for the Arkansas defense than the reverse match-up. That is almost for certain. The Tigers are above average in defending the run as well as the pass from an efficiency standpoint. They also do very well on 3rd downs (#21 FBS). Arkansas can absolutely hang in this game but are going to need to be really sharp on offense and play one of their best games. There is not going to be much margin for error in our opinion.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
This is a really competitive series with both teams winning 8 of the past 16 games….Auburn games are 10-3-1 L14 to the under……Arkansas is 21-10-1 ATS the past three seasons (!).
Summary
In our view this is absolutely too many points for Arkansas when looking at things from a pure perceived-value perspective. However, (you KNEW this was coming) the Razorbacks are coming off a couple of really tough games (ROLL TIDE, Ole Miss) while Auburn is a fresh and well-rested team coming off a bye. And the Arkansas defense is a big concern. What to do what to do ?
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: We cannot ignore the value with Arkansas and would probably play them down to +8.5 for small potatoes only. ZERO chance this makes the official play list given the holes on D for Arkansas and the situational advantage for Auburn.