Houston at SMU – Preview and Prediction
HOUSTON 21 SMU (63)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Houston -18.5 Sagarin ratings -24
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Houston 42 SMU 21
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Houston 38 SMU 17
The Game
Houston has been dominating all season. Except for that slip-up vs Navy. They are sitting at 5-1 and still look to make a really good bowl game if they run the table. SMU is still building towards something better. They have a record of 2-4 and are coming off an OT loss to a pretty decent Tulsa squad.
The Match-Up
Houston offense vs SMU defense
In theory, it should be a hot knife through butter scenario. SMU just finished giving up 34 first downs to Tulsa and have given up 33+ in every game other than their contests vs North Texas and Liberty early in the season. Houston is explosive on offense and have a very balanced attack led by QB Greg Ward. They are ranked #42 in the FBS in rushing and #20 in passing and have scored 33+ points in every game. The biggest problem we see for Houston is that SMU leads the AAC in interceptions (13) and they could take advantage of the Cougars if they are disinterested or sloppy. If the Cougars take care of the football they should get into the 40s. Keep an eye on the status of Duke Catalon. We really like him at RB, and while Houston has been giving guys more carries, that would not be a great deal for Houston supporters.
SMU offense vs Houston defense
The Mustangs have been struggling at the QB position but have still managed to put up points. QB Ben Hicks has only completed 52% of his passes, but the Mustangs do boast one of the most underrated WR in college football in Courtland Sutton. They also have a really good RB in Braeden West who is on pace for a 1,000 yard season. The big problem will be navigating one of the best front 7s in the FBs as Houston is ranked #3 in rushing defense and #10 in total defense. Hicks is going to be under a lot of pressure.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
Houston is 23-5-1 ATS (!!) in their last 29 away games but they did lose outright in their last road game vs Navy as yuuuuuge favorites.
Summary
Houston as the potential to light the Mustangs up. Will they come out sharp ? We cannot lay 3 TDs+ in this spot.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: SMU +21 or more