NC State at Louisville – Preview and Prediction
LOUISVILLE 19 NC STATE (65)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Louisville -17 Sagarin ratings -13.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Louisville 42 NC State 23
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Louisville 37 NC State 27
The Game
It’s another chance to see the amazing Lamar Jackson in action on Saturday as the Louisville Cardinals host NC State. The Wolfpack are coming off a really tough OT loss to Clemson, and frankly, it is a game that they probably should have won. A classic HC butchering job cost them the victory IMO but that is a story for another day. The point ? NC State went head to head with the Tigers last week and can certainly give the Cardinals a game if they are over the close call from last weekend.
The Match-Up
Louisville offense vs NC State defense
We are really intrigued by this match-up. The Wolfpack have exceeded our expectations on defense this season but now they face one of the toughest challenges in all of college football. Can they slow down Lamar Jackson ? He has 15 TD passes and 15 rushing TDs so far this season, and while D Watson is an excellent QB, Jackson is a ridiculously talented runner who is also throwing a much better deep ball this season. RB Brandon Radcliff is averaging over 8 yards per carry. NC State is going to be have to be at their best this week, and even if they are, it is hard to imagine the Cardinals not getting into the 40s.
NC State offense vs Louisville defense
The Wolfpack definitely have the kind of balanced offense that can keep them in this game. QB Ryan Finley has been very efficient and RB Matthew Dayes is well on his way to a 1,000-yard season. They face the #11 defense in the FBS that has faced some pretty good offenses this season. If NC State cannot pick up some first downs and play keep-away, it will be a long afternoon.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
The Wolfpack are 9-4-1 L14 ATS in road games……Both teams are in the bottom 10 in FBS in penalty yards so expect to see a lot of laundry on the field….The Cardinals scored 70,62,63,59 in their first four games and could only muster 36,24 the past two weeks….Keep in mind that Duke played the old milk-the-clock game last week vs Louisville and other teams may try and copy that strategy.
Summary
There is no way we could play NC State after that devastating loss last Saturday. Particularly when facing a team like Louisville.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: NC St TT under or Lousiville -18 if you can get before game time for small potatoes.