Ole Miss at LSU – Preview and Prediction
LSU 6 OLE MISS (60.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – LSU -7 Sagarin ratings – 3.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: LSU 33.25 Ole Miss 27.25
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Ole Miss 30 LSU 29
The Game
This a rock-solid Saturday night match-up as the surging LSU Tigers face the Mississippi Rebels in an SEC West showdown. The Tigers only have one SEC loss and have looked a lot better since coach Orgeron took over after the Auburn game. Win out – and they win the SEC West. Easy. Just joking. Sort of. Ole Miss has three losses this season but are still one of the best teams in the FBS on paper. The problem is that they are worn down, and realistically, are going to be looking at a bowl game that does not meet their preseason expectations. This is a rivalry game that is usually a battle for 60 minutes. Let’s roll !
The Match-Up
LSU offense vs Ole Miss defense
If only the game was played by action figures inside your TV and not by actual human beings. LSU has a devastating running game, and apparently, it does not matter how healthy their offensive line is, or if they use star RB Leonard Fournette. Derrius Guice has been a monster filling in for Fournette averaging over 9 (!!) yards per carry. Fournette is healthy this week and this duo should (in theory) make life miserable for the Ole Miss defense. Looks too EASY. QB Danny Etling has looked better every week and should have few problems on Saturday given that the ground game should be working on all cylinders.
Ole Miss is inexperienced on defense and does not have the personnel to match-up with the Tigers’ bruising ground game. They are going to have to find a way to force some turnovers. Their #104 ranked rushing defense is going to be in for a long night (213 yards per game allowed on the ground).
Ole Miss offense vs LSU defense
We have so much respect for QB Chad Kelly. The guy is tough and throws a great deep ball. The problem is that he has no ground game to keep things balanced and that is going to make things very difficult in this contest. LSU is giving up less than 3 yards a carry on defense so there is almost zero chance of Ole Miss doing anything on the ground. Overall, the Tigers have given up SIX TDs on defense all season, so there is no doubt, Ole Miss is going to have trouble getting in the end zone. To be fair, this is the probably the best QB that LSU will face all season, so stats can be misleading. It just worries us that the LSU ground attack should have their way with Ole Miss while the Rebels are #126 in the FBS (!) in time of possession. They are going to need to play a close-to-perfect game on offense to win this one. LSU has given up 16,13,20,18,7,10 in 6 games.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
OBSESSIVE TREND GUY should be salivating at the chance to play Ole Miss….It has been a LONG time since LSU beat Ole Miss by more than a TD at home (1995 if we trust our SEC INSIDERS)….and the underdog is 13-3 L16 ATS. What could possibly go wrong ?
Summary
It’s an old school play. Maybe a foolish one. We are going to go with the much better ground attack and defense. HC Orgeron used to coach someone in the SEC before he was fired….it might have been Ole Miss ?….and if that is the case, the men should be ready to run through a wall for him on Saturday night. It is the MAGNOLIA BOWL, but Ole Miss has three losses and cannot be as motivated as the Tigers. Our guess is that the Rebels will get jacked up for a demolition of Mississippi St in the Egg Bowl and then pulverize someone in their bowl game. This just looks like a bad spot on Saturday.
Conclusion
Official play: LSU -6 -103 (Play up to -7)
Lean: Under any number 60 or better.