San Jose St at San Diego St – Preview and Prediction
SAN DIEGO ST 23.5 SAN JOSE ST (48)
MEGALOCKS LINE – San Diego St -21 Sagarin ratings -20
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: San Diego St 35.75 San Jose St 12.25
Massey Ratings Projected Score: San Diego St 35 San Jose St 14
The Game
San Diego St was 9-0 in Mountain West games last season on their way to winning the conference. This season they are off to a 5-1 start (2-0 MW) and get to face the struggling San Jose St Spartans at home on Friday night. The Spartans are sitting at 2-5, and sadly, their season has been effectively reduced to playing the role of potential spoiler.
The Match-Up
San Diego St offense vs San Jose St defense
ALL-UNIVERSE RB Donnel Pumphrey is having a wonderful senior season and leads the FBS in rushing with 1,111 yards. Nobody else has more than 1,000. Their 18th ranked rushing attack should have a fun evening going up against one of the worst run defenses in college football (#113). San Diego does not throw the ball often, but when they do, they are effective. QB Christian Chapman has only thrown 2 INTs this year and we do not see the Aztecs needing to throw the ball often in this game. Amaze your LANDLORD with this gem – last week San Jose St allowed less than 34 points for the first time all season. The Aztecs should easily get into the 30s.
San Jose St offense vs San Diego St defense
Yo, DJ. Fire up the bad match-up music. The Spartans have a decent rushing attack (THREE 300-yard rushers), but when you subtract yards lost due to sacks, the Spartans rank 82nd in rushing offense. San Jose St is ranked DEAD LAST in the FBS in sacks allowed per game and that is not a good thing when you face San Diego St. We do think that QB Kenny Potter can make things happen with a decent WR group when he is not getting crushed by the Aztecs’ front 7. The problem we have is seeing any kind of consistency with the San Jose offense in this game. The Spartans have only scored more than 17 points twice all season. This is not Portland St or New Mexico they are facing on Friday night.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
The last two seasons have featured San Diego St wins by scores of 30-7 and 38-7.….San Jose St is just 2-11 L13 ATS as a road doggie.
Summary
Feels like a bad spot for the Spartans. The Aztecs do not have much mercy on average offenses (122,217 yards allowed last 2 games) and they are particularly stingy when playing in home conference games. We see Pumphrey rushing for 180-230 yards and the Aztecs winning by 17-28. Tough call.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: None