Texas A&M at Alabama – Preview and Prediction
ALABAMA 18.5 TEXAS A&M (58.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Alabama -16.5 Sagarin ratings – Alabama -15
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Alabama 38.5 Texas A&M 20
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Alabama 38 Texas A&M 21
The Game
ROLL TIDE. Alabama keeps plowing through their schedule (aside from the Ole Miss game) but have another tough opponent to deal with on Saturday when the undefeated Texas A&M Aggies come to town. This is a very interesting match-up because the Aggies definitely have the personnel to make this a good game.
The Match-Up
Alabama offense vs Texas A&M defense
ROLL TIDE has been relentless on offense this season. They have scored 48+ in five of their seven games (!) and combine a devastating running game with an explosive passing attack. The #10 ground game should have little trouble pounding the Aggies’ soft underbelly. Their tackling has been spotty at times and they are ranked #7 in the SEC in run defense. Tennessee ran for 282 yards and Auburn rolled for 236 (4.4 per carry tho). QB Jalen Hurts has been great hitting big plays when needed and is a very dangerous runner. That should keep the A&M DL on its toes. The best hope for Texas A&M is to force FGs (#4 RZ defense FBS), win the turnover battle (#12 turnover margin) and hope that the bye week gives them a bit more energy than ROLL TIDE. At least early on.
Texas A&M offense vs Alabama defense
Alabama has allowed more than 10 points twice all season. Ole Miss stuck them for 43 and the Hogs put up 30. The question becomes – Do the Aggies have the style of offense needed to score enough points to have a shot ? In our estimation, they are not going to stop the Tide from getting into the high 20s to low 40s.
The Alabama run defense is a brick wall. #1 in the FBS allowing 64 yards per game at 2 yards a pop. RB Trayveon Williams has been a wonderful surprise this season (704 yards rushing) and QB Trevor Knight has ran for over 500Y including some long runs. This is the A&M bread and butter and it is going to be difficult to get much done on the ground #HotTake. Ole Miss and Arkansas have very good passing games but Knight is only completing 53.5% of his passes while struggling at times with accuracy. 76 bubble screens is not going to get it done. They are going to have to test that Alabama secondary with medium and long-range MATRICULATION.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
The last time A&M visited ROLL TIDE in 2014 it was a 59-0 SPANKING….This A&M team is a much better overall squad….This is Alabama’s 8th straight week with a game while Texas A&M is off a bye…It might normally be a big advantage but ROLL TIDE is stacked with depth….Alabama is just 3-7 ATS L10 games as a home favorite.
Summary
Make no mistake, Texas A&M is a really good team with a couple of very nice wins (Arkansas, Auburn), but the match-up seems a bit difficult given their reliance on the ground game. We do like the spot for the Aggies coming in off a bye with a chip on their shoulder. They can play the disrespect card and will be plenty motivated. A win would put them in the driver’s seat in the SEC West. Alabama would take a one point win.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: Texas AM FIRST HALF at +10 or better if you can get it for small potatoes. The full game line scares us a bit given Alabama’s propensity to wear teams down and score on defense and special teams.