Troy at South Alabama – Preview and Prediction
TROY 9 SOUTH ALABAMA (49)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Troy -6.5 Sagarin ratings – Troy -11.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Troy 29 S Alabama 20
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Troy 31 S Alabama 21
The Game
It’s another edition of the Battle For The Belt, and this time, it is a Thursday Night edition that should have Fun Belt fans pumped up for action. The Trojans are 5-1 (3-0 Conf) with their only loss coming on the road vs Clemson. The Jaguars are 3-3 (0-3 Conf) but are still very much alive in the chase for bowl eligibility. South Alabama struggled to beat Nicholls (!) but did defeat San Diego St by 18 points and beat Miss St on the road in week one. That means that the Jaguars must be respected even though they are one of the most unpredictable teams out there.
The Match-Up
Troy offense vs South Alabama defense
The Trojans have a very balanced offense and that is their greatest strength. QB Brandon Silvers is having another fine season (14 TD vs 6 INT, 62%) and RB Jordan Chunn is well on his way to a 1,000-yard season (673 rushing yards). Troy throws the ball a lot – but impress your DENTAL HYGIENIST with this factoid – Troy has only given up ONE sack the entire season so far. Whoa. So as scrappy as the Jaguars’ defense has been at times, it appears on the surface that the Silvers should have time to do some damage.
The Jaguars are interesting in that they appear to be very weak against the run at first glance (#109 rushing defense – 220 yards per game) but they have played some really good rushing teams and have held their last two opponents to 3.8 yards per carry. That includes San Diego St. Whatever adjustments they made after the Miss St and Ga Southern games seem to be working. Then again, it could be that those teams featured mobile QBs. Troy does not have that luxury. South Alabama has not allowed many passing yards but are #76 in pass efficiency defense. This will be the best passing attack that they have faced to date. Big test for the secondary.
S Alabama offense vs Troy defense
Troy is #1 in the Sun Belt in yards per play allowed on defense. The Jaguars’ running game has been horrible this season, but there is some hope for the passing game to do some things against the Troy secondary. It is a two-edged sword. The Trojans have given up a ton of passing yards (285 per game) and 11 TDs BUT they have also picked off 14 passes (!) which is by far the most in the Sun Belt. And while the Jaguars’ passing game is ok, it is nothing like some of the air assaults that Troy has seen in 2016. QB Dallas Davis has only thrown 5 TDs this year (6 INTs) and is going to have to make some plays when MATRICULATING in the passing game.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
S Alabama is 3-13 ATS L16 Conf games…..Troy has dropped this contest the past two seasons by scores of 24-18 and 27-13…..not saying just saying.
Summary
We seem to have the fair line on this game quite a bit lower than the market consensus. On the one hand, we have not been impressed with the Jaguars’ play in conference so far, but on the other hand, they can be a devastatingly annoying underdog. You cannot just poo-poo away their wins over Miss St and San Diego St. South Alabama has held their last three opponents to 297,316,230 total yards offense. Troy was just outgained by Georgia St at home while getting roasted for almost 400 yards passing.
We do have slight leanage at this point to the Jaguars, but the fact that they will have almost no shot at running the football worries us a great deal.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: S Alabama for small potatoes only at 10+ if the line gets there.